Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 × 1015 to 1.6 × 1015 grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change

Uncertainty in biomass estimates is one of the greatest limitations to models of carbon flux in tropical forests. Previous comparisons of field-based estimates of the aboveground biomass (AGB) of trees greater than 10 cm diameter within Amazonia have been limited by the paucity of data for western Amazon forests, and the use of site-specific methods to estimate biomass from inventory data. In addition, the role of regional variation in stand-level wood specific gravity has not previously been considered. Using data from 56 mature forest plots across Amazonia, we consider the relative roles of species composition (wood specific gravity) and forest structure (basal area) in determining variation in AGB.Mean stand-level wood specific gravity, on a per stem basis, is 15.8% higher in forests in central and eastern, compared with northwestern Amazonia. This pattern is due to the higher diversity and abundance of taxa with high specific gravity values in central and eastern Amazonia, and the greater diversity and abundance of taxa with low specific gravity values in western Amazonia. For two estimates of AGB derived using different allometric equations, basal area explains 51.7% and 63.4%, and stand-level specific gravity 45.4% and 29.7%, of the total variation in AGB. The variation in specific gravity is important because it determines the regional scale, spatial pattern of AGB. When weighting by specific gravity is included, central and eastern Amazon forests have significantly higher AGB than stands in northwest or southwest Amazonia. The regional-scale pattern of species composition therefore defines a broad gradient of AGB across Amazonia.