Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have attenuated cross-population predictive performance. As existing genomewide association studies (GWAS) were predominantly conducted in individuals of European descent, the limited transferability of PRS reduces its clinical value in non-European populations and may exacerbate healthcare disparities. Recent efforts to level ancestry imbalance in genomic research have expanded the scale of non-European GWAS, although they remain under-powered. Here we present a novel PRS construction method, PRS-CSx, which improves cross-population polygenic prediction by integrating GWAS summary statistics from multiple populations. PRS-CSx couples genetic effects across populations via a shared continuous shrinkage prior, enabling more accurate effect size estimation by sharing information between summary statistics and leveraging linkage disequilibrium (LD) diversity across discovery samples, while inheriting computational efficiency and robustness from PRS-CS. We show that PRS-CSx outperforms alternative methods across traits with a wide range of genetic architectures and cross-population genetic correlations in simulations, and substantially improves the prediction of quantitative traits and schizophrenia risk in non-European populations.

BackgroundLithium remains a first-line treatment in bipolar disorder, but individual response is variable. Previous studies have suggested that lithium response is a heritable trait. However, no genetic markers have been reproducibly identified.MethodsHere we report the results of a genome-wide association study of lithium response in 2,563 patients collected by 22 participating sites from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen); the largest attempted so far. Data from over 6 million common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were tested for association with categorical and continuous ratings of lithium response of known reliability.FindingsA single locus of four linked SNPs on chromosome 21 met genome-wide significance criteria for association with lithium response (rs79663003: p=1·37×10−8; rs78015114: p=1·31×10−8; rs74795342: p=3·31×10−9; rs75222709: p=3·50×10−9). In an independent, prospective study of 73 patients treated with lithium monotherapy for a period of up to two years, carriers of the response-associated alleles had a significantly lower rate of relapse than carriers of the alternate alleles (p=0·03, hazard ratio = 3·8).InterpretationThe response-associated region contains two genes coding for long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs), AL157359.3 and AL157359.4. LncRNAs are increasingly appreciated as important regulators of gene expression, particularly in the CNS. Further studies are needed to establish the biological context of these findings and their potential clinical utility. Confirmed biomarkers of lithium response would constitute an important step forward in the clinical management of bipolar disorder.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified several susceptibility loci for bipolar disorder (BD) and shown that the genetic architecture of BD can be explained by polygenicity, with numerous variants contributing to BD. In the present GWAS (Phase I/II), which included 2964 BD and 61 887 control subjects from the Japanese population, we detected a novel susceptibility locus at 11q12.2 (rs28456, P=6.4 × 10−9), a region known to contain regulatory genes for plasma lipid levels (FADS1/2/3). A subsequent meta-analysis of Phase I/II and the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium for BD (PGC-BD) identified another novel BD gene, NFIX (Pbest=5.8 × 10−10), and supported three regions previously implicated in BD susceptibility: MAD1L1 (Pbest=1.9 × 10−9), TRANK1 (Pbest=2.1 × 10−9) and ODZ4 (Pbest=3.3 × 10−9). Polygenicity of BD within Japanese and trans-European-Japanese populations was assessed with risk profile score analysis. We detected higher scores in BD cases both within (Phase I/II) and across populations (Phase I/II and PGC-BD). These were defined by (1) Phase II as discovery and Phase I as target, or vice versa (for ‘within Japanese comparisons’, Pbest~10−29, R2~2%), and (2) European PGC-BD as discovery and Japanese BD (Phase I/II) as target (for ‘trans-European-Japanese comparison,’ Pbest~10−13, R2~0.27%). This ‘trans population’ effect was supported by estimation of the genetic correlation using the effect size based on each population (liability estimates~0.7). These results indicate that (1) two novel and three previously implicated loci are significantly associated with BD and that (2) BD ‘risk’ effect are shared between Japanese and European populations.

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This study provides evidence for a negative association between high genetic loading for SCZ and poor response to lithium in patients with BPAD. These results suggest the potential for translational research aimed at personalized prescribing of lithium.