SummaryBackgroundRemoval of adenomas reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality; however, the benefit of surveillance colonoscopy on colorectal cancer risk remains unclear. We examined heterogeneity in colorectal cancer incidence in intermediate-risk patients and the effect of surveillance on colorectal cancer incidence.MethodsWe did this retrospective, multicentre, cohort study using routine lower gastrointestinal endoscopy and pathology data from patients who, after baseline colonoscopy and polypectomy, were diagnosed with intermediate-risk adenomas mostly (>99%) between Jan 1, 1990, and Dec 31, 2010, at 17 hospitals in the UK. These patients are currently offered surveillance colonoscopy at intervals of 3 years. Patients were followed up through to Dec 31, 2014.We assessed the effect of surveillance on colorectal cancer incidence using Cox regression with adjustment for patient, procedural, and polyp characteristics. We defined lower-risk and higher-risk subgroups on the basis of polyp and procedural characteristics identified as colorectal cancer risk factors. We estimated colorectal cancer incidence and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) using as standard the general population of England in 2007. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN15213649.Findings253 798 patients who underwent colonic endoscopy were identified, of whom 11 944 with intermediate-risk adenomas were included in this analysis. After a median follow-up of 7·9 years (IQR 5·6–11·1), 210 colorectal cancers were diagnosed. 5019 (42%) patients did not attend surveillance and 6925 (58%) attended one or more surveillance visits. Compared to no surveillance, one or two surveillance visits were associated with a significant reduction in colorectal cancer incidence rate (adjusted hazard ratio 0·57, 95% CI 0·40–0·80 for one visit; 0·51, 0·31–0·84 for two visits). Without surveillance, colorectal cancer incidence in patients with a suboptimal quality colonoscopy, proximal polyps, or a high-grade or large adenoma (≥20 mm) at baseline (8865 [74%] patients) was significantly higher than in the general population (SIR 1·30, 95% CI 1·06–1·57). By contrast, in patients without these features, colorectal cancer incidence was lower than that of the general population (SIR 0·51, 95% CI 0·29–0·84).InterpretationColonoscopy surveillance benefits most patients with intermediate-risk adenomas. However, some patients are already at low risk after baseline colonoscopy and the value of surveillance for them is unclear.FundingNational Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment, Cancer Research UK.

APC is often cited as a prime example of a tumor suppressor gene. Truncating germline and somatic mutations (or, infrequently, allelic loss) occur in tumors in FAP (familial adenomatous polyposis). Most sporadic colorectal cancers also have two APC mutations. Clues from attenuated polyposis, missense germline variants with mild disease and the somatic mutation cluster region (codons 1,250-1,450) indicate, however, that APC mutations might not result in simple loss of protein function. We have found that FAP patients with germline APC mutations within a small region (codons 1,194-1,392 at most) mainly show allelic loss in their colorectal adenomas, in contrast to other FAP patients, whose 'second hits' tend to occur by truncating mutations in the mutation cluster region. Our results indicate that different APC mutations provide cells with different selective advantages, with mutations close to codon 1,300 providing the greatest advantage. Allelic loss is selected strongly in cells with one mutation near codon 1,300. A different germline-somatic APC mutation association exists in FAP desmoids. APC is not, therefore, a classical tumor suppressor. Our findings also indicate a new mechanism for disease severity: if a broader spectrum of mutations is selected in tumors, the somatic mutation rate is effectively higher and more tumors grow.

Classical familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) is a high-penetrance autosomal dominant disease that predisposes to hundreds or thousands of colorectal adenomas and carcinoma and that results from truncating mutations in the APC gene. A variant of FAP is attenuated adenomatous polyposis coli, which results from germ-line mutations in the 5 and 3 regions of the APC gene. Attenuated adenomatous polyposis coli patients have ''multiple'' colorectal adenomas (typically fewer than 100) without the f lorid phenotype of classical FAP. Another group of patients with multiple adenomas has no mutations in the APC gene, and their phenotype probably results from variation at a locus, or loci, elsewhere in the genome. Recently, however, a missense variant of APC (I1307K) was described that confers an increased risk of colorectal tumors, including multiple adenomas, in Ashkenazim. We have studied a set of 164 patients with multiple colorectal adenomas and͞or carcinoma and analyzed codons 1263-1377 (exon 15G) of the APC gene for germ-line variants. Three patients with the I1307K allele were detected, each of Ashkenazi descent. Four patients had a germ-line E1317Q missense variant of APC that was not present in controls; one of these individuals had an unusually large number of metaplastic polyps of the colorectum. There is increasing evidence that there exist germ-line variants of the APC gene that predispose to the development of multiple colorectal adenomas and carcinoma, but without the f lorid phenotype of classical FAP, and possibly with importance for colorectal cancer risk in the general population.