BackgroundIndia has 23% of the global burden of active tuberculosis (TB) patients and 27% of the world’s “missing” patients, which includes those who may not have received effective TB care and could potentially spread TB to others. The “cascade of care” is a useful model for visualizing deficiencies in case detection and retention in care, in order to prioritize interventions.Methods and FindingsThe care cascade constructed in this paper focuses on the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP), which treats about half of India’s TB patients. We define the TB cascade as including the following patient populations: total prevalent active TB patients in India, TB patients who reach and undergo evaluation at RNTCP diagnostic facilities, patients successfully diagnosed with TB, patients who start treatment, patients retained to treatment completion, and patients who achieve 1-y recurrence-free survival. We estimate each step of the cascade for 2013 using data from two World Health Organization (WHO) reports (2014–2015), one WHO dataset (2015), and three RNTCP reports (2014–2016). In addition, we conduct three targeted systematic reviews of the scientific literature to identify 39 unique articles published from 2000–2015 that provide additional data on five indicators that help estimate different steps of the TB cascade. We construct separate care cascades for the overall population of patients with active TB and for patients with specific forms of TB—including new smear-positive, new smear-negative, retreatment smear-positive, and multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB.The WHO estimated that there were 2,700,000 (95%CI: 1,800,000–3,800,000) prevalent TB patients in India in 2013. Of these patients, we estimate that 1,938,027 (72%) TB patients were evaluated at RNTCP facilities; 1,629,906 (60%) were successfully diagnosed; 1,417,838 (53%) got registered for treatment; 1,221,764 (45%) completed treatment; and 1,049,237 (95%CI: 1,008,775–1,083,243), or 39%, of 2,700,000 TB patients achieved the optimal outcome of 1-y recurrence-free survival.The separate cascades for different forms of TB highlight different patterns of patient attrition. Pretreatment loss to follow-up of diagnosed patients and post-treatment TB recurrence were major points of attrition in the new smear-positive TB cascade. In the new smear-negative and MDR TB cascades, a substantial proportion of patients who were evaluated at RNTCP diagnostic facilities were not successfully diagnosed. Retreatment smear-positive and MDR TB patients had poorer treatment outcomes than the general TB population. Limitations of our analysis include the lack of available data on the cascade of care in the private sector and substantial uncertainty regarding the 1-y period prevalence of TB in India.ConclusionsIncreasing case detection is critical to improving outcomes in India’s TB cascade of care, especially for smear-negative and MDR TB patients. For new smear-positive patients, pretreatment loss to follow-up and post-treatment TB recurrence are considerable points of attrition...

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND The End TB Strategy sets global goals of reducing TB incidence and mortality by 50% and 75% respectively by 2025. We assessed resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled-up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent TB modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we costed each scenario by synthesizing service utilization estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health impact and resource implications for 2016–2035, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios to a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS Incremental TB service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases more than doubled current funding needs. In general, expanding TB services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs; and in India and China this produced net cost-savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all countries, expanding TB care access produced substantial health gains. Compared to current practice, most intervention approaches appeared highly cost-effective when compared to conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds. INTERPRETATION Expanding TB services appears cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, though funding needs challenge affordability. Further work is required to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country.

BackgroundGlobally, India has the world’s highest burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Programmatic Management of Drug Resistant TB (PMDT) in India began in 2007 and nationwide coverage was achieved in early 2013. Poor initial microbiological outcomes under the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) prompted detailed analysis. This is the first study on factors significantly associated with poor outcomes in MDR-TB patients treated under the RNTCP.ObjectiveTo evaluate initial sputum culture conversion, culture reversion and final treatment outcomes among MDR-TB patients registered in India from 2007 to early 2011 who were treated with a standard 24-month regimen under daily-observed treatment.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study. Clinical and microbiological data were abstracted from PMDT records. Initial sputum culture conversion, culture reversion and treatment outcomes were defined by country adaptation of the standard WHO definitions (2008). Cox proportional hazards modeling with logistic regression, multinomial logistic regression and adjusted odds ratio was used to evaluate factors associated with interim and final outcomes respectively, controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics.ResultsIn the cohort of 3712 MDR-TB patients, 2735 (73.6%) had initial sputum culture conversion at 100 median days (IQR 92–125), of which 506 (18.5%) had culture reversion at 279 median days (IQR 202–381). Treatment outcomes were available for 2264 (60.9%) patients while 1448 (39.0%) patients were still on treatment or yet to have a definite outcome at the time of analysis. Of 2264 patients, 781 (34.5%) had treatment success, 644 (28.4%) died, 670 (29.6%) were lost to follow up, 169 (7.5%) experienced treatment failure or were changed to XDR-TB treatment. Factors significantly associated with either culture non-conversion, culture reversion and/or unfavorable treatment outcomes were baseline BMI < 18; ≥ seven missed doses in intensive phase (IP) and continuation phase (CP); cavitary disease; prior treatment episodes characterized by re-treatment regimen taken twice, longer duration and more episodes of treatment; any weight loss during treatment; males and additional resistance to first line drugs (Ethambutol, Streptomycin). In a subgroup of 104 MDR-TB patients, 62 (59.6%) had Ofloxacin resistance among whom only 25.8% had treatment success, half of the success (54.8%) seen in Ofloxacin sensitive patients. Baseline susceptibility to Ofloxacin (HR 2.04) and Kanamycin (HR 4.55) significantly doubled and quadrupled the chances for culture conversion respectively while baseline susceptibility to Ofloxacin (AOR 0.37) also significantly reduced the odds of unfavorable treatment outcomes (p value ≤0.05) in multinomial logistic regression model.ConclusionIndia’s initial MDR-TB patients’ cohort treated under the RNTCP experienced poor treatment outcomes. To address the factors associated with poor treatment outcomes revealed in our study, a systematic multi-pronged approach would be need...

Setting Community based tuberculosis (TB) prevalence surveys in ten sites across India during 2006–2012 Objective To re-analyze data of recent sub-national surveys using uniform statistical methods and obtain a pooled national level estimate of prevalence of TB. Methods Individuals ≥15 years old were screened by interview for symptoms suggestive of Pulmonary TB (PTB) and history of anti-TB treatment; additional screening by chest radiography was undertaken in five sites. Two sputum specimens were examined by smear and culture among Screen-positives. Prevalence in each site was estimated after imputing missing values to correct for bias introduced by incompleteness of data. In five sites, prevalence was corrected for non-screening by radiography. Pooled prevalence of bacteriologically positive PTB was estimated using Random Effects Model after excluding data from one site. Overall prevalence of TB (all ages, all types) was estimated by adjusting for extra-pulmonary TB and Pediatric TB. Results Of 769290 individuals registered, 715989 were screened by interview and 294532 also by radiography. Sputum specimen were examined from 50 852 individuals. Estimated prevalence of smear positive, culture positive and bacteriologically positive PTB varied between 108.4–428.1, 147.9–429.8 and 170.8–528.4 per 100000 populations in different sites. Pooled estimate of prevalence of bacteriologically positive PTB was 350.0 (260.7, 439.0). Overall prevalence of TB was estimated at 300.7 (223.7–377.5) in 2009, the mid-year of surveys. Prevalence was significantly higher in rural compared to urban areas. Conclusion TB burden continues to be high in India suggesting further strengthening of TB control activities.