Germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 confer high risks of breast and ovarian cancer, but the average magnitude of these risks is uncertain and may depend on the context. Estimates based on multiple-case families may be enriched for mutations of higher risk and/or other familial risk factors, whereas risk estimates from studies based on cases unselected for family history have been imprecise. We pooled pedigree data from 22 studies involving 8,139 index case patients unselected for family history with female (86%) or male (2%) breast cancer or epithelial ovarian cancer (12%), 500 of whom had been found to carry a germline mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2. Breast and ovarian cancer incidence rates for mutation carriers were estimated using a modified segregation analysis, based on the occurrence of these cancers in the relatives of mutation-carrying index case patients. The average cumulative risks in BRCA1-mutation carriers by age 70 years were 65% (95% confidence interval 44%-78%) for breast cancer and 39% (18%-54%) for ovarian cancer. The corresponding estimates for BRCA2 were 45% (31%-56%) and 11% (2.4%-19%). Relative risks of breast cancer declined significantly with age for BRCA1-mutation carriers (P trend.0012) but not for BRCA2-mutation carriers. Risks in carriers were higher when based on index breast cancer cases diagnosed at <35 years of age. We found some evidence for a reduction in risk in women from earlier birth cohorts and for variation in risk by mutation position for both genes. The pattern of cancer risks was similar to those found in multiple-case families, but their absolute magnitudes were lower, particularly for BRCA2. The variation in risk by age at diagnosis of index case is consistent with the effects of other genes modifying cancer risk in carriers.

Multiple genetic loci confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers. We have previously developed a model (BOADICEA) under which susceptibility to breast cancer is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, as well as by the joint multiplicative effects of many genes (polygenic component). We have now updated BOADICEA using additional family data from two UK population-based studies of breast cancer and family data from BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers identified by 22 population-based studies of breast or ovarian cancer. The combined data set includes 2785 families (301 BRCA1 positive and 236 BRCA2 positive). Incidences were smoothed using locally weighted regression techniques to avoid large variations between adjacent intervals. A birth cohort effect on the cancer risks was implemented, whereby each individual was assumed to develop cancer according to calendar period-specific incidences. The fitted model predicts that the average breast cancer risks in carriers increase in more recent birth cohorts. For example, the average cumulative breast cancer risk to age 70 years among BRCA1 carriers is 50% for women born in 1920 -1929 and 58% among women born after 1950. The model was further extended to take into account the risks of male breast, prostate and pancreatic cancer, and to allow for the risk of multiple cancers. BOADICEA can be used to predict carrier probabilities and cancer risks to individuals with any family history, and has been implemented in a user-friendly Web-based program

BRCA1, BRCA2 and other known susceptibility genes account for less than half of the detectable hereditary predisposition to breast cancer. Other relevant genes therefore remain to be discovered. Recently a new BRCA2-binding protein, PALB2, was identified. The BRCA2-PALB2 interaction is crucial for certain key BRCA2 DNA damage response functions as well as its tumour suppression activity. Here we show, by screening for PALB2 mutations in Finland that a frameshift mutation, c.1592delT, is present at significantly elevated frequency in familial breast cancer cases compared with ancestry-matched population controls. The truncated PALB2 protein caused by this mutation retained little BRCA2-binding capacity and was deficient in homologous recombination and crosslink repair. Further screening of c.1592delT in unselected breast cancer individuals revealed a roughly fourfold enrichment of this mutation in patients compared with controls. Most of the mutation-positive unselected cases had a familial pattern of disease development. In addition, one multigenerational prostate cancer family that segregated the c.1592delT truncation allele was observed. These results indicate that PALB2 is a breast cancer susceptibility gene that, in a suitably mutant form, may also contribute to familial prostate cancer development.

CHEK2 (previously known as "CHK2") is a cell-cycle-checkpoint kinase that phosphorylates p53 and BRCA1 in response to DNA damage. A protein-truncating mutation, 1100delC in exon 10, which abolishes the kinase function of CHEK2, has been found in families with Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) and in those with a cancer phenotype that is suggestive of LFS, including breast cancer. In the present study, we found that the frequency of 1100delC was 2.0% among an unselected population-based cohort of 1,035 patients with breast cancer. This was slightly, but not significantly (P=.182), higher than the 1.4% frequency found among 1,885 population control subjects. However, a significantly elevated frequency was found among those 358 patients with a positive family history (11/358 [3.1%]; odds ratio [OR] 2.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-4.63; P=.021, compared with population controls). Furthermore, patients with bilateral breast cancer were sixfold more likely to be 1100delC carriers than were patients with unilateral cancer (95% CI 1.87-20.32; P=.007). Analysis of the 1100delC variant in an independent set of 507 patients with familial breast cancer with no BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations confirmed a significantly elevated frequency of 1100delC (28/507 [5.5%]; OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.4-7.2; P=.0002), compared with controls, with a high frequency also seen in patients with only a single affected first-degree relative (18/291 [6.2%]). Finally, tissue microarray analysis indicated that breast tumors from patients with 1100delC mutations show reduced CHEK2 immunostaining. The results suggest that CHEK2 acts as a low-penetrance tumor-suppressor gene in breast cancer and that it makes a significant contribution to familial clustering of breast cancer-including families with only two affected relatives, which are more common than families that include larger numbers of affected women.

NQO1 guards against oxidative stress and carcinogenesis and stabilizes p53. We find that a homozygous common missense variant (NQO1(*)2, rs1800566(T), NM_000903.2:c.558C>T) that disables NQO1 strongly predicts poor survival among two independent series of women with breast cancer (P = 0.002, N = 1,005; P = 0.005, N = 1,162), an effect particularly evident after anthracycline-based adjuvant chemotherapy with epirubicin (P = 7.52 x 10(-6)) and in p53-aberrant tumors (P = 6.15 x 10(-5)). Survival after metastasis was reduced among NQO1(*)2 homozygotes, further implicating NQO1 deficiency in cancer progression and treatment resistance. Consistently, response to epirubicin was impaired in NQO1(*)2-homozygous breast carcinoma cells in vitro, reflecting both p53-linked and p53-independent roles of NQO1. We propose a model of defective anthracycline response in NQO1-deficient breast tumors, along with increased genomic instability promoted by elevated reactive oxygen species (ROS), and suggest that the NQO1 genotype is a prognostic and predictive marker for breast cancer.