Purpose Predicting the pattern of recurrence can aid in the development of targeted surveillance and treatment strategies. We identified patient populations that remain at risk for an event at a median follow-up of 24 years from the diagnosis of operable breast cancer. Patients and Methods International Breast Cancer Study Group clinical trials I to V randomly assigned 4,105 patients between 1978 and 1985. Annualized hazards were estimated for breast cancer–free interval (primary end point), disease-free survival, and overall survival. Results For the entire group, the annualized hazard of recurrence was highest during the first 5 years (10.4%), with a peak between years 1 and 2 (15.2%). During the first 5 years, patients with estrogen receptor (ER) – positive disease had a lower annualized hazard compared with those with ER-negative disease (9.9% v 11.5%; P = .01). However, beyond 5 years, patients with ER-positive disease had higher hazards (5 to 10 years: 5.4% v 3.3%; 10 to 15 years: 2.9% v 1.3%; 15 to 20 years: 2.8% v 1.2%; and 20 to 25 years: 1.3% v 1.4%; P < .001). Among patients with ER-positive disease, annualized hazards of recurrence remained elevated and fairly stable beyond 10 years, even for those with no axillary involvement (2.0%, 2.1%, and 1.1% for years 10 to 15, 15 to 20, and 20 to 25, respectively) and for those with one to three positive nodes (3.0%, 3.5%, and 1.5%, respectively). Conclusion Patients with ER-positive breast cancer maintain a significant recurrence rate during extended follow up. Strategies for follow up and treatments to prevent recurrences may be most efficiently applied and studied in patients with ER-positive disease followed for a long period of time.

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The prognostic value of 12 clinical and haematological parameters, recorded at diagnosis, in myelofibrosis with myeloid metaplasia (MMM) was retrospectively analysed in a consecutive series of 133 patients followed for a minimum of 60 months. Multivariate analysis showed that the following features were associated with a significantly shorter survival: (1) short period of time (less than 13 months) between first symptoms and diagnosis; (2) anaemia (haemoglobin less than 10 g/dl); (3) leucocyte count greater than 12 x 10(9)/l; (4) peripheral blood granulocyte precursors greater than 10%. Age, splenectomy and percentage of peripheral blood metamyelocytes were found significantly to affect survival only from univariate analysis, whereas sex, size of spleen, thrombocytopenia and thrombocytosis were of no prognostic significance. These data suggest that a more intensive chemotherapy might be useful for younger patients with bad prognostic factors at diagnosis.