No abstract

Keywords:SWAT model Latest ensemble of climate models Climate change Glacier Hydrology s u m m a r y Climate change is a major environmental concern and the melting processes of the glaciers and snowpacks are sensitive to climate change. The ultimate effect of the future changes on the glacier and hydrology is unclear and poorly investigated for Central Asia. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a glacier-enhanced Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia. Results indicate that small glaciers suffer from larger relative area losses than large glaciers. Only 8% of the originally glaciated area for small glaciers will retain glaciers by 2100 for RCP8.5. The rate of area retreat for small glaciers (with an area <1 km 2 ) will slow down for the period 2066-2095, while the glacier area shrinkage is projected to accelerate for large glaciers throughout the twenty-first century. In all cases, glaciers will recede but net glacier melt runoff will reach peak in about 2040. Decreases in future runoff are projected in combination with a negative change in precipitation, snowmelt and higher evapotranspiration. Glacier melt is mainly derived by future temperature changes, while the runoff and snowmelt component are determined by future precipitation. The timing of peak runoff is advancing about one month as a result of earlier snowmelt due to the warming temperature. Runoff is projected to increase during the spring and decrease for the summer season for the future periods. Thus water availability on the time will likely undergo significant changes.

Black locust accounts for over 90% of artificial forests in China’s Loess Plateau region. However, water use of black locust is an uphill challenge for this semi-arid region. To accurately quantify tree water use and to explain the related hydrological processes, it is important to collect reliable data for application in the estimation of sap flow and its response to environmental factors. This study measured sap flow in black locust in the 2015 and 2016 growth seasons using the thermal dissipation probes technique and laboratory-calibrated Granier’s equation. The study showed that the laboratory calibrated coefficient α was much larger than the original value presented by Granier, while the coefficient β was similar to the original one. The average daily transpiration was 2.1 mm day−1 for 2015 and 1.6 mm day−1 for 2016. Net solar radiation (Rn) was the key meteorological factor controlling sap flow, followed by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and then temperature (T). VPD had a threshold control on sap flow at threshold values of 1.9 kPa for 2015 and 1.6 kPa for 2016. The effects of diurnal hysteresis of Rn, VPD and T on sap flow were evident, indicating that black locust water use was conservative.