The aim of the present study was to describe the clinical presentation of patients aged ≥80 years with coronavirus disease 2019 , and provide insights regarding the prognostic factors and the risk stratification in this population.Methods: This was a single-center, retrospective, observational study, carried out in a referral center for COVID-19 in central Italy. We reviewed the clinical records of patients consecutively admitted for confirmed COVID-19 over a 1-month period (1-31 March 2020). We excluded asymptomatic discharged patients. We identified risk factors for death, by a uni-and multivariate Cox regression analysis. To improve model fitting and hazard estimation, continuous parameters where dichotomized by using Youden's index.Results: Overall, 69 patients, aged 80-98 years, met the inclusion criteria and were included in the study cohort. The median age was 84 years (82-89 years is interquartile range); 37 patients (53.6%) were men. Globally, 14 patients (20.3%) presented a mild, 30 (43.5%) a severe and 25 (36.2%) a critical COVID-19 disease. A total of 23 (33.3%) patients had died at 30 days' follow up. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that severe dementia, pO 2 ≤90 at admission and lactate dehydrogenase >464 U/L were independent risk factors for death. Conclusions:The present data suggest that risk of death could be not age dependent in patients aged ≥80 years, whereas severe dementia emerged is a relevant risk factor in this population. Severe COVID-19, as expressed by elevated lactate dehydrogenase and low oxygen saturation at emergency department admission, is associated with a rapid progression to death in these patients.
Aims To identify the most accurate early warning score (EWS) for predicting an adverse outcome in COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). Methods In adult consecutive patients admitted (March 1-April 15, 2020) to the ED of a major referral centre for COVID-19, we retrospectively calculated NEWS, NEWS2, NEWS-C, MEWS, qSOFA, and REMS from physiological variables measured on arrival. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of each EWS for predicting admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and death at 48 h and 7 days were calculated. Results We included 334 patients (119 [35.6%] females, median age 66 [54-78] years). At 7 days, the rates of ICU admission and death were 56/334 (17%) and 26/334 (7.8%), respectively. NEWS was the most accurate predictor of ICU admission within 7 days (AUROC 0.783 [95% CI, 0.735-0.826]; sensitivity 71.4 [57.8-82.7]%; NPV 93.1 [89.8-95.3]%), while REMS was the most accurate predictor of death within 7 days (AUROC 0.823 [0.778–0.863]; sensitivity 96.1 [80.4-99.9]%; NPV 99.4[96.2–99.9]%). Similar results were observed for ICU admission and death at 48 h. NEWS and REMS were as accurate as the triage system used in our ED. MEWS and qSOFA had the lowest overall accuracy for both outcomes. Conclusion In our single-centre cohort of COVID-19 patients, NEWS and REMS measured on ED arrival were the most sensitive predictors of 7-day ICU admission or death. EWS could be useful to identify patients with low risk of clinical deterioration.
Background: Ascending aorta (ASC) dilatation (AAD) is a common finding in arterial hypertension, affecting about 15% of hypertensive patients. AAD is associated with an increase in cardiac and vascular hypertension-related organ damage, but its prognostic role is unknown. The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic value of AAD as predictor of cardiovascular events in essential hypertensive patients.Methods: Recruited patients underwent two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiography from 2007 to 2013 and followed-up for cardiovascular events until November 2018 by phone call and hospital information system check. ASC diameter and AAD were defined using both absolute and scaled definitions. Four hundred and twenty-three hypertensive patients were included in our study.Results: During a median follow-up of 7.4 years (interquartile range 5.6-9.1 years), 52 events were observed. After adjusting for age, sex and BSA, both ASC diameter and AAD definition, according to ARGO-SIIA project, resulted associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular event (both P < 0.010), even after adjusting for major confounders (both P < 0.010). Moreover, we observed that the assessment of ASC improves risk stratification compared with pulse wave velocity alone, and that in absence of AAD, sinus of valsalva dilatation lost any prognostic value (P ¼ 0.262).Conclusions: ASC diameter and AAD are both associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular events. ASC should be assessed to optimize risk stratification in hypertensive patients and its dilatation may be considered as a surrogate for vascular organ damage.
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