Effects of climate change are particularly important in the Mediterranean Biodiversity hotspot where rising temperatures and drought are negatively affecting several plant taxa, including endemic species. Assisted colonisation (AC) represents a useful tool for reducing the effect of climate change on endemic plant species threatened by climate change.
We combined species distribution models (SDMs) for 188 taxa endemic to Italy with the IUCN red listing range loss threshold under criterion A (30%) to define: (a) the number of AC (measured as 2 × 2 km grid cells that should be occupied by new populations, i.e. grid cells = new populations) required to fully compensate for predicted range loss and to halt the decline below the 30% of range loss; (b) The number of cells necessary to compensate for range loss was calculated as the number of currently occupied cells lost under future climate due to unsuitable conditions. We used two representative concentration pathways, +2.6 and +8.5 W/m2, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. Availability of suitable areas for AC was also assessed within the current species distribution and within protected areas.
Under the optimistic scenario, no taxa would lose more than 30% of their range and AC would not be required. Under the pessimistic scenario, roughly the 90% of taxa showed a cell loss higher than 30%. Eight taxa were predicted to lose >95% of their range. For these species, AC was required from 13 to 16 new populations (=13–16 grid cells) per taxon to cap the range loss at 30%. For currently VU or EN species, an average number of 32–35 AC attempts would be necessary to fully compensate their range loss under a pessimistic scenario. Suitable recipient sites within protected areas falling in their projected range were identified, allowing for short‐distance AC.
Synthesis. Combining species distribution models and red listing thresholds under Criterion A has enabled the strategic planning of multiple species assisted colonisation minimising the effort in terms of new populations to be created and maximising the conservation benefit in terms of range loss compensation.
Santolina is a plant genus of dwarf aromatic shrubs that includes about 26 species native to the western Mediterranean Basin. In Corsica and Sardinia, two of the main islands of the Mediterranean, Santolina corsica (tetraploid) and S. insularis (hexaploid) are reported. Along with the cultivated pentaploid S. chamaecyparissus, these species form a group of taxa that is hard to distinguish only by morphology. Molecular (using ITS, trnH-psbA, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rps16, rps15-ycf1, psbM-trnD, and trnS-trnG), cypsela morpho-colorimetric, morphometric, and niche similarity analyses were conducted to investigate the diversity of plants belonging to this species group. Our results confute the current taxonomic hypothesis and suggest considering S. corsica and S. insularis as a single species. Moreover, molecular and morphometric results highlight the strong affinity between S. chamaecyparissus and the Santolina populations endemic to Corsica and Sardinia. Finally, the populations from south-western Sardinia, due to their high differentiation in the studied plastid markers and the different climatic niche with respect to all the other populations, could be considered as an evolutionary significant unit.
Three subspecies of Armeria arenaria are reported from Italy, two of which are considered endemic to the Apennines. The taxonomic value of these two taxa (A. arenaria subsp. marginata and A. arenaria subsp. apennina) is unclear. Moreover, the relationships between A. arenaria subsp. praecox and Northern Italian populations—currently ascribed to A. arenaria subsp. arenaria—have never been addressed. Accordingly, we used an integrated taxonomic approach, including morphometry, seed morpho–colorimetry, karyology, molecular systematics (psbA–trnH, trnQ–rps16, trnF–trnL, trnL–rpl32, and ITS region), and comparative niche analysis. According to our results, French–Northern Italian populations are clearly distinct from Apennine populations. In the first group, there is evidence which allows the recognition of A. arenaria s.str. (not occurring in Italy) and A. arenaria subsp. praecox. In the second group, the two putative taxa endemic to the Northern Apennines cannot be separated, so a single subspecies is here recognized: A. arenaria subsp. marginata.
A lectotype is designated for the name Dianthus virgineus. The relationships between D. virgineus, D. caryophyllus var. caryophyllus, and D. caryophyllus var. inodorus are analyzed. Dianthus virgineus is the oldest available name that applies to a species complex that is often referred to as D. sylvestris or a broad circumscription of the cultivated ornamental D. caryophyllus. The taxonomic consequences are discussed, and the need for further studies is highlighted.
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