The Oxford Classification of IgA Nephropathy (IgAN) identified mesangial hypercellularity (M), endocapillary proliferation (E), segmental glomerulosclerosis (S), and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (T) as independent predictors of outcome. Whether it applies to individuals excluded from the original study and how therapy influences the predictive value of pathology remain uncertain. The VALIGA study examined 1147 patients from 13 European countries that encompassed the whole spectrum of IgAN. Over a median follow-up of 4.7 years, 86% received renin–angiotensin system blockade and 42% glucocorticoid/immunosuppressive drugs. M, S, and T lesions independently predicted the loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and a lower renal survival. Their value was also assessed in patients not represented in the Oxford cohort. In individuals with eGFR less than 30 ml/min per 1.73 m2, the M and T lesions independently predicted a poor survival. In those with proteinuria under 0.5 g/day, both M and E lesions were associated with a rise in proteinuria to 1 or 2 g/day or more. The addition of M, S, and T lesions to clinical variables significantly enhanced the ability to predict progression only in those who did not receive immunosuppression (net reclassification index 11.5%). The VALIGA study provides a validation of the Oxford classification in a large European cohort of IgAN patients across the whole spectrum of the disease. The independent predictive value of pathology MEST score is reduced by glucocorticoid/immunosuppressive therapy.

The Oxford Classification of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) includes the following four histologic components: mesangial (M) and endocapillary (E) hypercellularity, segmental sclerosis (S) and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (T). These combine to form the MEST score and are independently associated with renal outcome. Current prediction and risk stratification in IgAN requires clinical data over 2 years of follow-up. Using modern prediction tools, we examined whether combining MEST with cross-sectional clinical data at biopsy provides earlier risk prediction in IgAN than current best methods that use 2 years of follow-up data. We used a cohort of 901 adults with IgAN from the Oxford derivation and North American validation studies and the VALIGA study followed for a median of 5.6 years to analyze the primary outcome (50% decrease in eGFR or ESRD) using Cox regression models. Covariates of clinical data at biopsy (eGFR, proteinuria, MAP) with or without MEST, and then 2-year clinical data alone (2-year average of proteinuria/MAP, eGFR at biopsy) were considered. There was significant improvement in prediction by adding MEST to clinical data at biopsy. The combination predicted the outcome as well as the 2-year clinical data alone, with comparable calibration curves. This effect did not change in subgroups treated or not with RAS blockade or immunosuppression. Thus, combining the MEST score with cross-sectional clinical data at biopsy provides earlier risk prediction in IgAN than our current best methods.

Background and objectives The calcimimetic cinacalcet reduced the risk of death or cardiovascular (CV) events in older, but not younger, patients with moderate to severe secondary hyperparathyroidism (HPT) who were receiving hemodialysis. To determine whether the lower risk in younger patients might be due to lower baseline CV risk and more frequent use of cointerventions that reduce parathyroid hormone (kidney transplantation, parathyroidectomy, and commercial cinacalcet use), this study examined the effects of cinacalcet in older ($65 years, n=1005) and younger (,65 years, n=2878) patients.Design, setting, participants, & measurements Evaluation of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower Cardiovascular Events (EVOLVE) was a global, multicenter, randomized placebo-controlled trial in 3883 prevalent patients on hemodialysis, whose outcomes included death, major CV events, and development of severe unremitting HPT. The age subgroup analysis was prespecified.Results Older patients had higher baseline prevalence of diabetes mellitus and CV comorbidity. Annualized rates of kidney transplantation and parathyroidectomy were .3-fold higher in younger relative to older patients and were more frequent in patients randomized to placebo. In older patients, the adjusted relative hazard (95% confidence interval) for the primary composite (CV) end point (cinacalcet versus placebo) was 0.70 (0.60 to 0.81); in younger patients, the relative hazard was 0.97 (0.86 to 1.09). Corresponding adjusted relative hazards for mortality were 0.68 (0.51 to 0.81) and 0.99 (0.86 to 1.13). Reduction in the risk of severe unremitting HPT was similar in both groups. ConclusionsIn the EVOLVE trial, cinacalcet decreased the risk of death and of major CV events in older, but not younger, patients with moderate to severe HPT who were receiving hemodialysis. Effect modification by age may be partly explained by differences in underlying CV risk and differential application of cointerventions that reduce parathyroid hormone.

This new statistical approach has identified clinical and histological risk factors associated with outcome in children and young adults with IgAN.

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