Objectives To quantify the relative contribution of premorbid and episode specific factors in determining the long term persistence of disabling symptoms of low back pain.

The objective of the study was to examine the 1-year cumulative incidence of episodic neck pain and to explore its associations with individual risk factors, including a history of previous neck injury. A baseline cross-sectional survey of an adult general population sample made up of all 7669 adults aged 18-75 years, registered with two family practices in South Manchester, United Kingdom, identified the study population of adults with no current neck pain. This study population was surveyed again 12 months later to identify all those who had experienced neck pain during the follow-up period. At follow-up, cumulative 1-year episode incidence of neck pain was estimated at 17.9% (95% confidence interval 16.0-19.7%). Incidence was independent of age, but was more common in women. A history of previous neck injury at baseline was a significant risk factor for subsequent neck pain in the follow-up year (risk ratio 1.7, 95% confidence interval 1.2-2.5), independent of gender and psychological status. Other independent baseline risk factors for subsequent neck pain included number of children, poor self-assessed health, poor psychological status and a past history of low back pain. We have carried out a prospective study in a general population sample and demonstrated that established risk factors for chronic pain predict future episodes of neck pain, and shown that in addition a history of neck injury is an independent and distinct risk factor. This finding may have major public health and medicolegal implications.

This study outlines the design and validation of a new self-administered instrument for assessing foot pain and disability. The 19-item questionnaire was tested on 45 rheumatology patients, 33 patients who had attended their general practitioner with a foot-related problem and 1000 responders to a population survey of foot disorders. Levels of reported disability were found to be greatest for rheumatology patients and least for community subjects. In addition, the instrument was able to detect differences in disability levels reported by community subjects who did and did not consult with a health care professional and those who did and did not have a history of past and current foot pain. A good level of agreement was found when items on the questionnaire were compared with similar items on the ambulation sub-scale of the Functional Limitation Profile questionnaire. A Cronbach's alpha value of 0.99 and item-total correlation values between 0.25 and 0.62 confirmed the internal consistency of the instrument. Finally the results of a principal components analysis identified three constructs that reflected disabilities that are associated with foot pain: functional limitation, pain intensity and personal appearance. The design of the foot disability questionnaire makes it a suitable instrument for assessing the impact of painful foot conditions in both community and clinical populations.