Natural history studies have identified factors that predict evolution to multiple sclerosis or risk of disability accumulation over time. Although these studies are based on large multicentre cohorts with long follow-ups, they have limitations such as lack of standardized protocols, a retrospective data collection or lack of a systematic magnetic resonance imaging acquisition and analysis protocol, often resulting in failure to take magnetic resonance and oligoclonal bands into account as joint covariates in the prediction models. To overcome some of these limitations, the aim of our study was to identify and stratify baseline demographic, clinical, radiological and biological characteristics that might predict multiple sclerosis development and disability accumulation using a multivariate approach based on a large prospective cohort of patients with clinically isolated syndromes. From 1995 to 2013, 1058 patients with clinically isolated syndromes were included. We evaluated the influence of baseline prognostic factors on the risk for developing clinically definite multiple sclerosis, McDonald multiple sclerosis, and disability accumulation (Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 3.0) based on univariate (hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) and multivariate (adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) Cox regression models. We ultimately included 1015 patients followed for a mean of 81 (standard deviation = 57) months. Female/male ratio was 2.1. Females exhibited a similar risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and of disability accumulation compared to males. Each younger decade at onset was associated with a greater risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and with a protective effect on disability. Patients with optic neuritis had a lower risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [hazard ratio 0.6 (0.5-0.8)] and disability progression [hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3-0.8)]; however, this protective effect remained marginal only for disability [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4-1.0)] in adjusted models. The presence of oligoclonal bands increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 1.3 (1.0-1.8)] and of disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.0 (1.2-3.6)] independently of other factors. The presence of 10 or more brain lesions on magnetic resonance increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 11.3 (6.7-19.3)] and disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.9 (1.4-6.0)]. Disease-modifying treatment before the second attack reduced the risk of McDonald multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4-0.9)] and disability accumulation [adjusted hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3-0.9)]. We conclude that the demographic and topographic characteristics are low-impact prognostic factors, the presence of oligoclonal bands is a medium-impact prognostic factor, and the number of lesions on brain magnetic resonance is a high-impact prognostic factor.

Context. Debris discs are a consequence of the planet formation process and constitute the fingerprints of planetesimal systems. Their solar system counterparts are the asteroid and Edgeworth-Kuiper belts. Aims. The DUNES survey aims at detecting extra-solar analogues to the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt around solar-type stars, putting in this way the solar system into context. The survey allows us to address some questions related to the prevalence and properties of planetesimal systems. Methods. We used Herschel/PACS to observe a sample of nearby FGK stars. Data at 100 and 160 μm were obtained, complemented in some cases with observations at 70 μm, and at 250, 350 and 500 μm using SPIRE. The observing strategy was to integrate as deep as possible at 100 μm to detect the stellar photosphere. Results. Debris discs have been detected at a fractional luminosity level down to several times that of the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt. The incidence rate of discs around the DUNES stars is increased from a rate of ∼12.1% ± 5% before Herschel to ∼20.2% ± 2%. A significant fraction (∼52%) of the discs are resolved, which represents an enormous step ahead from the previously known resolved discs. Some stars are associated with faint far-IR excesses attributed to a new class of cold discs. Although it cannot be excluded that these excesses are produced by coincidental alignment of background galaxies, statistical arguments suggest that at least some of them are true debris discs. Some discs display peculiar SEDs with spectral indexes in the 70-160 μm range steeper than the Rayleigh-Jeans one. An analysis of the debris disc parameters suggests that a decrease might exist of the mean black body radius from the F-type to the K-type stars. In addition, a weak trend is suggested for a correlation of disc sizes and an anticorrelation of disc temperatures with the stellar age.

A B S T R A C TWe present contemporaneous optical and infrared (IR) photometric observations of the Type IIn SN 1998S covering the period between 11 and 146 d after discovery. The IR data constitute the first ever IR light curves of a Type IIn supernova. We use blackbody and spline fits to the photometry to examine the luminosity evolution. During the first 2±3 months, the luminosity is dominated by the release of shock-deposited energy in the ejecta. After ,100 d the luminosity is powered mostly by the deposition of radioactive decay energy from 0X150X05 M ( of 56 Ni which was produced in the explosion. We also report the discovery of an astonishingly high IR excess, K 2 L H 2X5Y that was present at day 130. We interpret this as being due to thermal emission from dust grains in the vicinity of the supernova. We argue that to produce such a high IR luminosity so soon after the explosion, the dust must be preexisting and so is located in the circumstellar medium of the progenitor. The dust could be heated either by the UV/optical flash (IR echo) or by the X-rays from the interaction of the ejecta with the circumstellar material.

Since the launch of the Fermi satellite, BL Lacertae has been moderately active at γrays and optical frequencies until May 2011, when the source started a series of strong flares. The exceptional optical sampling achieved by the GLAST-AGILE Support Program (GASP) of the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (WEBT) in collaboration with the Steward Observatory allows us to perform a detailed comparison with the daily γ-ray observations by Fermi. Discrete correlation analysis between the optical and γ-ray emission reveals correlation with a time lag of 0 ± 1 d, which suggests cospatiality of the corresponding jet emitting regions. A better definition of the time lag is hindered by the daily gaps in the sampling of the extremely fast flux variations. In general, optical flares present more structure and develop on longer time scales than corresponding γ-ray flares. Observations at X-rays and at millimetre wavelengths reveal a common trend, which suggests that the region producing the mm and X-ray radiation is located downstream from the optical and γ-ray-emitting zone in the jet. The mean optical degree of polarisation slightly decreases over the considered period and in general it is higher when the flux is lower. The optical electric vector polarisation angle (EVPA) shows a preferred orientation of about 15 • , nearly aligned with the radio core EVPA and mean jet direction. Oscillations around it increase during the 2011-2012 outburst. We investigate the effects of a geometrical interpretation of the long-term flux variability on the polarisation. A helical magnetic field model predicts an evolution of the mean polarisation that is in reasonable agreement with the observations. These can be fully explained by introducing slight variations in the compression factor in a transverse shock waves model.