Background

Objective To quantify the effect on cervical disease at age 20 years of immunisation with bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine at age 12-13 years. Design Retrospective population study, 1988-96. Setting National vaccination and cervical screening programmes in Scotland. Participants 138 692 women born between 1 January 1988 and 5 June 1996 and who had a smear test result recorded at age 20. Main outcome measures Effect of vaccination on cytology results and associated histological diagnoses from first year of screening (while aged 20), calculated using logistic regression. Results 138 692 records were retrieved. Compared with unvaccinated women born in 1988, vaccinated women born in 1995 and 1996 showed an 89% reduction (95% confidence interval 81% to 94%) in prevalent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or worse (from 0.59% (0.48% to 0.71%) to 0.06% (0.04% to 0.11%)), an 88% reduction (83% to 92%) in CIN grade 2 or worse (from 1.44% (1.28% to 1.63%) to 0.17% (0.12% to 0.24%)), and a 79% reduction (69% to 86%) in CIN grade 1 (from 0.69% (0.58% to 0.63%) to 0.15% (0.10% to 0.21%)). Younger age at immunisation was associated with increasing vaccine effectiveness: 86% (75% to 92%) for CIN grade 3 or worse for women vaccinated at age 12-13 compared with 51% (28% to 66%) for women vaccinated at age 17. Evidence of herd protection against high grade cervical disease was found in unvaccinated girls in the 1995 and 1996 cohorts. Conclusions Routine vaccination of girls aged 12-13 years with the bivalent HPV vaccine in Scotland has led to a dramatic reduction in preinvasive cervical disease. Evidence of clinically relevant herd protection is apparent in unvaccinated women. These data are consistent with the reduced prevalence of high risk HPV in Scotland. The bivalent vaccine is confirmed as being highly effective vaccine and should greatly reduce the incidence of cervical cancer. The findings will need to be considered by cervical cancer prevention programmes worldwide.

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A small percentage of women with cervical HPV infection progress to cervical neoplasia, and the risk factors determining progression are incompletely understood. We sought to define the genetic loci involved in cervical neoplasia and to assess its heritability using unbiased unrelated case/control statistical approaches. We demonstrated strong association of cervical neoplasia with risk and protective HLA haplotypes that are determined by the amino-acids carried at positions 13 and 71 in pocket 4 of HLA-DRB1 and position 156 in HLA-B. Furthermore, 36% (standard error 2.4%) of liability of HPV-associated cervical pre-cancer and cancer is determined by common genetic variants. Women in the highest 10% of genetic risk scores have approximately >7.1% risk, and those in the highest 5% have approximately >21.6% risk, of developing cervical neoplasia. Future studies should examine genetic risk prediction in assessing the risk of cervical neoplasia further, in combination with other screening methods.

Background:In Scotland, a national HPV immunisation programme began in 2008 for 12- to 13-year olds, with a catch-up campaign from 2008 to 2011 for those under the age of 18. To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation on cervical disease at the population level, a programme of national surveillance was established.Methods:We analysed colposcopy data from a cohort of women born between 1988 and 1992 who entered the Scottish Cervical Screening Programme (SCSP) and were aged 20–21 in 2008–2012.Results:By linking datasets from the SCSP and colposcopy services, we observed a significant reduction in diagnoses of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1 (CIN 1; RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87; P=0.0008), CIN 2 (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.63; P<0.0001) and CIN 3 (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.58; P<0.0001) for women who received three doses of vaccine compared with unvaccinated women.Conclusions:To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to show a reduction of low- and high-grade CIN associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine at the population level. These data are very encouraging for countries that have achieved high HPV vaccine uptake.