Background: There is strong biologic plausibility to support change in albuminuria as a surrogate endpoint for progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but empirical evidence to supports its validity in epidemiologic studies is lacking. Methods: We analyzed 28 cohorts including 693,816 individuals (80% with diabetes) and 7,461 end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) events, defined as initiation of kidney replacement therapy. Percent change in albuminuria was quantified during a baseline period of 1, 2 and 3 years using linear regression. Associations with subsequent ESKD were quantified using Cox regression in Coresh et al.

Accurate measurement of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is complicated and costly; therefore, GFR is commonly estimated by assessing creatinine or cystatin C concentrations. Because estimates based on cystatin C predict cardiovascular disease better than creatinine, these estimates have been hypothesized to be superior to those based on creatinine, when the GFR is near the normal range. To test this, we measured GFR by iohexol clearance in a representative sample of middle-aged (50-62 years) individuals in the general population, excluding those with coronary heart or kidney disease, stroke or diabetes mellitus. Bias, precision (median and interquartile range of estimated minus measured GFR (mGFR)), and accuracy (percentage of estimates within 30% of mGFR) of published cystatin C and creatinine-based GFR equations were compared in a total of 1621 patients. The cystatin C-based equation with the highest accuracy (94%) had a bias of 3.5 and precision of 18 ml/min per 1.73 m², whereas the most accurate (95%) creatinine-based equation had a bias of 2.9 and precision of 15 ml/min per 1.73 m² The best equation, based on both cystatin C and creatinine, had a bias of 7.6 ml/min per 1.73 m², precision of 15 ml/min per 1.73 m², and accuracy of 92%. Thus, estimates of GFR based on cystatin C were not superior to those based on creatinine in the general population. Hence, the better prediction of cardiovascular disease by cystatin C than creatinine measurements, found by others, may be due to factors other than GFR.

Estimation of the GFR (eGFR) using creatinine-or cystatin C-based equations is imperfect, especially when the true GFR is normal or near-normal. Modest reductions in eGFR from the normal range variably predict cardiovascular morbidity. If eGFR associates not only with measured GFR (mGFR) but also with cardiovascular risk factors, the effects of these non-GFR-related factors might bias the association between eGFR and outcome. To investigate these potential non-GFR-related associations between eGFR and cardiovascular risk factors, we measured GFR by iohexol clearance in a sample from the general population (age 50 to 62 years) without known cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or kidney disease. Even after adjustment for mGFR, eGFR associated with traditional cardiovascular risk factors in multiple regression analyses. More risk factors influenced cystatin C-based eGFR than creatinine-based eGFR, adjusted for mGFR, and some of the risk factors exhibited nonlinear effects in generalized additive models (P Ͻ 0.05). These results suggest that eGFR, calculated using standard creatinine-or cystatin C-based equations, partially depends on factors other than the true GFR. Thus, estimates of cardiovascular risk associated with small changes in eGFR must be interpreted with caution.

OBJECTIVEIncreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR), also called hyperfiltration, is a proposed mechanism for renal injury in diabetes. The causes of hyperfiltration in individuals without diabetes are largely unknown, including the possible role of borderline hyperglycemia. We assessed whether impaired fasting glucose (IFG; 5.6–6.9 mmol/L), elevated HbA1c, or hyperinsulinemia are associated with hyperfiltration in the general middle-aged population.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSA total of 1,560 individuals, aged 50–62 years without diabetes, were included in the Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey in Tromsø 6 (RENIS-T6). GFR was measured as single-sample plasma iohexol clearance. Hyperfiltration was defined as GFR >90th percentile, adjusted for sex, age, weight, height, and use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors.RESULTSParticipants with IFG had a multivariable-adjusted odds ratio of 1.56 (95% CI 1.07–2.25) for hyperfiltration compared with individuals with normal fasting glucose. Odds ratios (95% CI) of hyperfiltration calculated for a 1-unit increase in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c, after multivariable-adjustment, were 1.97 (1.36–2.85) and 2.23 (1.30–3.86). There was no association between fasting insulin levels and hyperfiltration. A nonlinear association between FPG and GFR was observed (df = 3, P < 0.0001). GFR increased with higher glucose levels, with a steeper slope beginning at FPG ≥5.4 mmol/L.CONCLUSIONSBorderline hyperglycemia was associated with hyperfiltration, whereas hyperinsulinemia was not. Longitudinal studies are needed to investigate whether the hyperfiltration associated with IFG is a risk factor for renal injury in the general population.

Background: The role of serum uric acid as an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease and death is uncertain in the general population. Adjustments for additional cardiovascular risk factors have not been consistent. We examined the association of serum uric acid with all-cause mortality, ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction in a prospective population based study, with several traditional and non-traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease included in the model. Methods: A population-based prospective cohort study was performed among 2696 men and 3004 women. Endpoints were all-cause mortality after 15 years, and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke after 12 years. Results: 1433 deaths, 659 MIs and 430 ischemic strokes occurred during follow-up. Fully adjusted Cox regression analyses showed that per 1 SD (87 μmol/L) increase in serum uric acid level, the risk of all-cause mortality increased in both genders (hazard ratios, HR men; 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.20, women; 1.16, 1.05-1.29). HRs and 95% CI for stroke were 1.31, 1.14-1.50 in men, 1.13, 0.94-1.36 in women, and 1.22 (1.09, 1.35) in the overall population. No independent associations were observed with MI.