Introductory paragraph Infections caused by carbapenemase-producing enterobacteria (CPE) are a major concern in clinical settings worldwide. Two fundamentally different processes shape the epidemiology of CPE in hospitals: the dissemination of CPE clones from patient to patient (between-patient transfer), and the transfer of carbapenemase-encoding plasmids between enterobacteria in the gut microbiota of individual patients (within-patient transfer). The relative contribution of each process to the overall dissemination of carbapenem resistance in hospitals remains poorly understood. Here, we used mechanistic models combining epidemiological data from more than 9,000 patients with whole genome sequence information from 250 enterobacteria clones to characterise the dissemination routes of a pOXA-48-like carbapenemase-encoding plasmid in a hospital setting over a two-year period. Our results revealed frequent between-patient transmission of high-risk pOXA-48-carrying clones, mostly of Klebsiella pneumoniae and sporadically Escherichia coli . The results also identified pOXA-48 dissemination hotspots within the hospital, such as specific wards and individual rooms within wards. Using high-resolution plasmid sequence analysis, we uncovered the pervasive within-patient transfer of pOXA-48, suggesting that horizontal plasmid transfer occurs in the gut of virtually every colonised patient. The complex and multifaceted epidemiological scenario exposed by this study provides insights for the development of intervention strategies to control the in-hospital spread of CPE.

Plasmid persistence in bacterial populations is strongly influenced by the fitness effects associated with plasmid carriage. However, plasmid fitness effects in wild-type bacterial hosts remain largely unexplored. In this study, we determined the fitness effects of the major antibiotic resistance plasmid pOXA-48_K8 in wild-type, ecologically compatible enterobacterial isolates from the human gut microbiota. Our results show that although pOXA-48_K8 produced an overall reduction in bacterial fitness, it produced small effects in most bacterial hosts, and even beneficial effects in several isolates. Moreover, genomic results showed a link between pOXA-48_K8 fitness effects and bacterial phylogeny, helping to explain plasmid epidemiology. Incorporating our fitness results into a simple population dynamics model revealed a new set of conditions for plasmid stability in bacterial communities, with plasmid persistence increasing with bacterial diversity and becoming less dependent on conjugation. These results help to explain the high prevalence of plasmids in the greatly diverse natural microbial communities.