Background
Infections worsen survival in cirrhosis; however, simple predictors of survival in infection-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (I-ACLF) derived from multi-center studies are required in order to improve prognostication and resource allocation.
Methods
Using the NACSELD database, data from 18 centers were collected for survival analysis of prospectively enrolled cirrhotic patients hospitalized with an infection. We defined organ failures as (i) shock, (ii) grade III/IV hepatic encephalopathy(HE), (iii) need for dialysis (iv) mechanical ventilation. Determinants of survival with these organ failures were analyzed.
Results
507 patients were included (55 yrs, 52% HCV, 15.8% nosocomial infection, 96% Child score≥7) and 30-day evaluations were available in 453 patients. Urinary tract infection (UTI) (28.5%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) (22.5%) were most prevalent. During hospitalization, 55.7% developed HE, 17.6% shock, 15.1% required renal replacement, and 15.8% needed ventilation; 23% died within 30-days and 21.6% developed second infections. Admitted patients developed none (38.4%), one (37.3%), two (10.4%), three (10%) or four (4%) organ failures. 30-day survival worsened with higher number of extra-hepatic organ failures, none (92%), one (72.6%), two (51.3%), three (36%) and all four (23%). I-ACLF was defined as ≥2 organ failures given the significant change in survival probability associated at this cutoff. Baseline independent predictors for development of ACLF were nosocomial infections, MELD score, low mean arterial pressure (MAP), and non-SBP infections. Independent predictors of poor 30-day survival were I-ACLF, second infections, and admission values of high MELD, low MAP, high white blood count and low albumin. In conclusion, using multi-center study data in hospitalized decompensated infected cirrhotic patients, I-ACLF defined by the presence of two or more organ failures using simple definitions is predictive of poor survival.
