BackgroundLimited tools exist to identify which individuals infected with Plasmodium falciparum are at risk of developing serious complications such as cerebral malaria (CM). The objective of this study was to assess serum biomarkers that differentiate between CM and non-CM, with the long-term goal of developing a clinically informative prognostic test for severe malaria.Methodology/Principal FindingsBased on the hypothesis that endothelial activation and blood-brain-barrier dysfunction contribute to CM pathogenesis, we examined the endothelial regulators, angiopoietin-1 (ANG-1) and angiopoietin-2 (ANG-2), in serum samples from P. falciparum-infected patients with uncomplicated malaria (UM) or CM, from two diverse populations – Thai adults and Ugandan children. Angiopoietin levels were compared to tumour necrosis factor (TNF). In both populations, ANG-1 levels were significantly decreased and ANG-2 levels were significantly increased in CM versus UM and healthy controls (p<0.001). TNF was significantly elevated in CM in the Thai adult population (p<0.001), but did not discriminate well between CM and UM in African children. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that ANG-1 and the ratio of ANG-2∶ANG-1 accurately discriminated CM patients from UM in both populations. Applied as a diagnostic test, ANG-1 had a sensitivity and specificity of 100% for distinguishing CM from UM in Thai adults and 70% and 75%, respectively, for Ugandan children. Across both populations the likelihood ratio of CM given a positive test (ANG-1<15 ng/mL) was 4.1 (2.7–6.5) and the likelihood ratio of CM given a negative test was 0.29 (0.20–0.42). Moreover, low ANG-1 levels at presentation predicted subsequent mortality in children with CM (p = 0.027).Conclusions/SignificanceANG-1 and the ANG-2/1 ratio are promising clinically informative biomarkers for CM. Additional studies should address their utility as prognostic biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets in severe malaria.

BackgroundSevere malaria is a leading cause of childhood mortality in Africa. However, at presentation, it is difficult to predict which children with severe malaria are at greatest risk of death. Dysregulated host inflammatory responses and endothelial activation play central roles in severe malaria pathogenesis. We hypothesized that biomarkers of these processes would accurately predict outcome among children with severe malaria.Methodology/FindingsPlasma was obtained from children with uncomplicated malaria (n = 53), cerebral malaria (n = 44) and severe malarial anemia (n = 59) at time of presentation to hospital in Kampala, Uganda. Levels of angiopoietin-2, von Willebrand Factor (vWF), vWF propeptide, soluble P-selectin, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), soluble endoglin, soluble FMS-like tyrosine kinase-1 (Flt-1), soluble Tie-2, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, 10 kDa interferon gamma-induced protein (IP-10), and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1) were determined by ELISA. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess predictive accuracy of individual biomarkers. Six biomarkers (angiopoietin-2, soluble ICAM-1, soluble Flt-1, procalcitonin, IP-10, soluble TREM-1) discriminated well between children who survived severe malaria infection and those who subsequently died (area under ROC curve>0.7). Combinational approaches were applied in an attempt to improve accuracy. A biomarker score was developed based on dichotomization and summation of the six biomarkers, resulting in 95.7% (95% CI: 78.1–99.9) sensitivity and 88.8% (79.7–94.7) specificity for predicting death. Similar predictive accuracy was achieved with models comprised of 3 biomarkers. Classification tree analysis generated a 3-marker model with 100% sensitivity and 92.5% specificity (cross-validated misclassification rate: 15.4%, standard error 4.9%).ConclusionsWe identified novel host biomarkers of pediatric severe and fatal malaria (soluble TREM-1 and soluble Flt-1) and generated simple biomarker combinations that accurately predicted death in an African pediatric population. While requiring validation in further studies, these results suggest the utility of combinatorial biomarker strategies as prognostic tests for severe malaria.