Although airborne transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been recognized, the condition of ventilation for its occurrence is still being debated. We analyzed a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak involving three families in a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, assessed the possibility of airborne transmission, and characterized the associated environmental conditions. We collected epidemiological data, obtained a full video recording and seating records from the restaurant, and measured the dispersion of a warm tracer gas as a surrogate for exhaled droplets from the index case. Computer simulations were performed to simulate the spread of fine exhaled droplets. We compared the in-room location of subsequently infected cases and spread of the simulated virus-laden aerosol tracer. The ventilation rate was measured using the tracer gas concentration decay method. This outbreak involved ten infected persons in three families (A, B, C). All ten persons ate lunch at three neighboring tables at the same restaurant on January 24, 2020. None of the restaurant staff or the 68 patrons at the other 15 tables became infected. During this occasion, the measured ventilation rate was 0.9 L/s per person. No close contact or fomite contact was identified, aside from back-to-back sitting in some cases. Analysis of the airflow dynamics indicates that the infection distribution is consistent with a spread pattern representative of long-range transmission of exhaled virus-laden aerosols. Airborne transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is possible in crowded space with a ventilation rate of 1 L/s per person.
Rationale: Several studies have estimated basic production number of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). However, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP during the outbreak remain unclear. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the basic and time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP across China, and compared them with SARS. Methods: Data on NCP cases by February 7, 2020 were collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing and Hong Kong during 2002-2003 were also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R0) and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of NCP and SARS. Measurements and main results: As of February 7, 2020, 34,598 NCP cases were identified in China, and daily confirmed cases decreased after February 4. The doubling time of NCP nationwide was 2.4 days which was shorter than that of SARS in Guangdong (14.3 days), Hong Kong (5.7 days) and Beijing (12.4 days). The R0 of NCP cases nationwide and in Wuhan were 4.5 and 4.4 respectively, which were higher than R0 of SARS in Guangdong (R0=2.3), Hongkong (R0=2.3), and Beijing (R0=2.6). The Rt for NCP continuously decreased especially after January 16 nationwide and in Wuhan. The R0 for secondary NCP cases in Guangdong was 0.6, and the Rt values were less than 1 during the epidemic. Conclusions:NCP may have a higher transmissibility than SARS, and the efforts of containing the outbreak are effective.However, the efforts are needed to persist in for reducing time-varying reproduction number below one. now named as Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP), occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The disease has rapidly spread from Wuhan to other areas. As a novel virus, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP remain unclear, and it is also important to compare it with SARS.What This Study Adds to the Field: We compared the transmission dynamics of NCP with SARS, and found that NCP has a higher transmissibility than SARS. Time-varying production number indicates that rigorous control measures taken by governments are effective across China, and persistent efforts are needed to be taken for reducing instantaneous reproduction number below one. author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
Highlights d 1.6 million tests identified 1,388 SARS-CoV-2 infections in Guangdong by 19 March d Virus genomes can be recovered using a variety of sequencing approaches d Analyses reveal multiple viral importations with limited local transmission d Effective control measures helped reduce and eliminate chains of viral transmission
The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has spread rapidly worldwide. To provide data on its virological profile, we here report the first local transmission of Delta in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of quarantined individuals indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR-positive, were on average ~1000 times greater compared to lineage A/B infections during the first epidemic wave in China in early 2020, suggesting potentially faster viral replication and greater infectiousness of Delta during early infection. The estimated transmission bottleneck size of the Delta variant was generally narrow, with 1-3 virions in 29 donor-recipient transmission pairs. However, the transmission of minor iSNVs resulted in at least 3 of the 34 substitutions that were identified in the outbreak, highlighting the contribution of intra-host variants to population-level viral diversity during rapid spread.
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