The leopard’s (Panthera pardus) broad geographic range, remarkable adaptability, and secretive nature have contributed to a misconception that this species might not be severely threatened across its range. We find that not only are several subspecies and regional populations critically endangered but also the overall range loss is greater than the average for terrestrial large carnivores. To assess the leopard’s status, we compile 6,000 records at 2,500 locations from over 1,300 sources on its historic (post 1750) and current distribution. We map the species across Africa and Asia, delineating areas where the species is confirmed present, is possibly present, is possibly extinct or is almost certainly extinct. The leopard now occupies 25–37% of its historic range, but this obscures important differences between subspecies. Of the nine recognized subspecies, three (P. p. pardus, fusca, and saxicolor) account for 97% of the leopard’s extant range while another three (P. p. orientalis, nimr, and japonensis) have each lost as much as 98% of their historic range. Isolation, small patch sizes, and few remaining patches further threaten the six subspecies that each have less than 100,000 km2 of extant range. Approximately 17% of extant leopard range is protected, although some endangered subspecies have far less. We found that while leopard research was increasing, research effort was primarily on the subspecies with the most remaining range whereas subspecies that are most in need of urgent attention were neglected.
Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.population viability analysis | threat assessment | protected areas | landscape conservation | megafauna T he spread and dominance of humans across the world during the Anthropocene have precipitated a sixth global biodiversity extinction crisis (1). To maximize biodiversity retention through this period of rapid change, scarce conservation resources need to be targeted toward species and ecosystems that are most Significance Here, we compile and present the most comprehensive data available on cheetah distribution and status. Our analysis shows dramatic declines of cheetah across its distributional range. Most cheetah occur outside protected areas, where they are exposed to multiple threats, but there is little information on population status. Simulation modeling shows that, where cheetah population growth rates are suppressed outside protected areas, extinction risk increases markedly. This result can be generalized to other "protection-reliant" species, and a decision tree is provided to improve their extinction risk estimation. Ultimately, the persistence of protection-reliant species depends on their survival outside and inside protected areas and requires a holistic approach to conservation that engages rather than alienates local communities.
Aim Biodiversity loss is a major driver of ecosystem change, yet the ecological data required to detect and mitigate losses are often lacking. Recently, camera trap surveys have been suggested as a method for sampling local wildlife communities, because these observations can be collated into a global monitoring network. To demonstrate the potential of camera traps for global monitoring, we assembled data from multiple local camera trap surveys to evaluate the interchange between fine‐ and broad‐scale processes impacting mammalian carnivore communities. Location Argentina, Belize, Botswana, Canada, Indonesia, Iran, Madagascar, Nepal, Norway, Senegal, South Africa, and the U.S.A. Methods We gathered camera trap data, totalling > 100,000 trap nights, from across five continents. To analyse local and species‐specific responses to anthropogenic and environmental variables, we fitted multispecies occurrence models to each study area. To analyse global‐level responses, we then fitted a multispecies, multi‐area occurrence model. Results We recorded 4,805 detections of 96 mammalian carnivore species photographed across 1,714 camera stations located in 12 countries. At the global level, our models revealed that carnivore richness and occupancy within study areas was positively associated with prey availability. Occupancy within study areas also tended to increase with greater protection and greater distances to roads. The strength of these relationships, however, differed among countries. Main conclusions We developed a research framework for leveraging global camera trap data to evaluate patterns of mammalian carnivore occurrence and richness across multiple spatial scales. Our research highlights the importance of intact prey populations and protected areas in conserving carnivore communities. Our research also highlights the potential of camera traps for monitoring wildlife communities and provides a case study for how this can be achieved on a global scale. We encourage greater integration and standardization among camera trap studies worldwide, which would help inform effective conservation planning for wildlife populations both locally and globally.
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