Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2021. Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate conditions. Biodiversitas 22: 2088-2103. The expansion of plant species to outside areas of its original localities has attracted great interest in theoretical ecology. The scientific curiosity of such phenomenon is even deeper when the geographical expansion is confined by natural boundaries and affected by environmental changes, including climates. This study aimed to predict the current suitable habitat niche of Selaginella zollingeriana Spring, a species with original distribution in Java Island, and to project its potential suitable niche in the Indonesian archipelago accounting for future climate conditions. In doing so, we applied the Ecological Niche Modelings (ENMs) using MaxEnt algorithm by employing 30 presence data of S. zollingeriana and twelve enviro-climatic variables. The model predicted around 17.22% (22,095 km2) of the Java Island area is potentially suitable for current habitat niche of S. zollingeriana, consisting of 10.93% (14,028 km2), 4.75% (6,097 km2), and 1.54% (1,970 km2) of low, medium, and high suitability areas, respectively. Under future scenarios, the model predicted the possibility of species expansion into the other four big islands (i.e., Sumatera, Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua). Nonetheless, the model also predicted a declining trend of the availability of suitable niches wherein from 2030 to 2080 the modeled niche declined about 58% and 59% under the most optimistic and most pessimistic climate change projections, respectively. While this study provides a primary example in predicting species expansion in tropical archipelago, similar studies in a range of contexts (e.g., species, region) are recommended to add more evidence to strengthen the theoretical ground of expansion ecology under climate changes.

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 4866-4877. Selaginella is a genus of non-flowering plant that requires water as a medium for fertilization, as such, it prefers mountainous areas with high level of humidity. Such unique ecosystem of Selaginella is available in some parts of Java Island, Indonesia, especially in highland areas with altitude of more than 1,000 meters above sea level. However, most mountainous areas in Java are likely to be affected by climate change due to global warming, threatening the habitat and sustainability of Selaginella. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of Selaginella opaca Warb. and Selaginella remotifolia Spring. In doing so, we predicted the suitable habitats of both species using Species Distribution Model (SDM) tool of MaxEnt under present climate conditions and future conditions under four climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data were obtained from fieldworks conducted in 2007-2014 across Java Island (283 points: 144 and 139 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively) and combined with secondary data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) (52 points: 35 and 17 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively), and this dataset was used to model present geographical distribution using environmental and bioclimatic variables. Then, future distribution was predicted under four climate change scenarios: i.e. RCP (Representative Carbon Pathways) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). The results of the models showed that the extent of suitable habitats of S. opaca and S. remotifolia will be reduced between 1.8-11.4% due to changes in climatic condition, and in the areas with high level of habitat suitability, including Mount Sumbing, Mount Sindoro and Mount Dieng (Dieng Plateau), the reduction can reach up to 60%. This study adds another context of evidence to understand the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity, especially on climate-sensitive species, such as Selaginella, in climate-risk regions like mountainous areas of Java Island.

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Anticipated climate changes reveal shifting in habitat suitability of high-altitude selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 5482-5497. High-altitude ecosystems with humid and cool climate are the preferred habitat for some Selaginella species (selaginellas). Such habitats are available in Java, Indonesia, which also has fertile soils with rich mineral contents resulted from volcanic activities. However, the high-altitude ecosystems in Java are threatened by various anthropogenic activities as well as changes in climate conditions, potentially affecting some Selaginella species. This study aimed to investigate the shift in suitable habitat of four species of high-altitude Selaginella spp. (Selaginella involvens, S. opaca, S. ornata, and S. remotifolia) in Java Island under current and future climate conditions predicted by several representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Presence data of Selaginella localities were collected from field survey between 2007 and 2014 across the island, as well as occurrence points from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. A total of 1,721 occurrence points data along with environmental and climate data were used to develop species distribution models using MaxEnt. Future habitat distributions were projected under four climate scenarios to see the shift in suitable habitat and altitudinal ranges. The results showed that the distribution of the four high-altitude Selaginella species are strongly influenced by altitude, annual average temperature, and annual rainfall. In the present time, 37.32% (48,974 km2) of the area of Java has been predicted to be suitable for high-altitude Selaginella. Under the optimistic climate scenario (RCP 2.6), the highly suitable area will likely to decrease by almost 35% in the year 2080, whereas the medium and low suitable areas will reduce by about 37.2% and 18.3%, respectively. Under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), about 21.2% of low suitable areas will be lost in 2080, whereas the medium and highly suitable areas are predicted to decrease by around 38.1% and 33.4%, respectively. Under the pessimistic scenario, there will be upward shift by 51.1 m in the year 2030 from the current’s mean altitude and will shift by almost 150 m in the year 2080. The maximum altitude of predicted suitable habitat is also predicted to increase to reach almost 3500 m asl in the year 2080. The results of this study imply that habitat shift of four high-altitude Selaginella species varies depending on the scenario, but in all cases, the losses are greater than gains.

Abstract. Sabrina AD, Ramadhandi AR, Nur AAI, Liza N, Sutarno, Yap CK, Indrawan M, Setyawan AD. 2022. Sustainability level of mangrove forest management based on RAP-MForest approach in Pancer Cengkrong, Trenggalek District, Indonesia. Intl J Bonorowo Wetlands 12: 82-88. Mangrove forest area is a coastal resource that benefits the community's welfare. Protection and preservation of the mangrove ecosystem need to be carried out by taking into account various aspects to achieve sustainability. This study aims to analyze the level of sustainability of mangrove forest management and the contributing factors in the Pancer Cengkrong Mangrove Forest area in Karanggandu Village, Trenggalek District, East Java, Indonesia. This research was conducted in June 2022 through field interviews and literature studies. Three dimensions (ecological, economic, and social) were selected, along with their attributes. Each attribute was scored to indicate the status of sustainability. Then, the data obtained were processed by Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) analysis using the Rapid Appraisal for Mangrove Forest (RAP-MForest) method. Furthermore, leverage analysis determines the sensitive attributes in each dimension. The results depicted that management in Pancer Cengkrong Mangrove Forest is less sustainable in the economic dimension and fairly sustainable in the two remaining dimensions. The social dimension achieved the highest sustainability index value at 72.92. Furthermore, knowledge of the sustainability index and sensitive factors can help provide recommendations for management in the Pancer Cengkrong mangrove area to achieve a sustainable level. In this case, the economic dimension should be more concerned with promoting environmentally sustainable development.

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