We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the 12.5 yr pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. Our analysis finds strong evidence of a stochastic process, modeled as a power law, with common amplitude and spectral slope across pulsars. Under our fiducial model, the Bayesian posterior of the amplitude for an f −2/3 power-law spectrum, expressed as the characteristic GW strain, has median 1.92 × 10−15 and 5%–95% quantiles of 1.37–2.67 × 10−15 at a reference frequency of f yr = 1 yr − 1 ; the Bayes factor in favor of the common-spectrum process versus independent red-noise processes in each pulsar exceeds 10,000. However, we find no statistically significant evidence that this process has quadrupolar spatial correlations, which we would consider necessary to claim a GWB detection consistent with general relativity. We find that the process has neither monopolar nor dipolar correlations, which may arise from, for example, reference clock or solar system ephemeris systematics, respectively. The amplitude posterior has significant support above previously reported upper limits; we explain this in terms of the Bayesian priors assumed for intrinsic pulsar red noise. We examine potential implications for the supermassive black hole binary population under the hypothesis that the signal is indeed astrophysical in nature.

We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the newly released 11-year dataset from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). While we find no evidence for a GWB, we place constraints on a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries, a network of decaying cosmic strings, and a primordial GWB. For the first time, we find that the GWB constraints are sensitive to the Solar System ephemeris (SSE) model used, and that SSE errors arXiv:1801.02617v2 [astro-ph.HE] 7 Jun 2018 2 THE NANOGRAV COLLABORATION can mimic a GWB signal. We developed an approach that bridges systematic SSE differences, producing the first PTA constraints that are robust against SSE errors. We thus place a 95% upper limit on the GW strain amplitude of A GWB < 1.45 × 10 −15 at a frequency of f = 1-yr −1 for a fiducial f −2/3 power-law spectrum, and with inter-pulsar correlations modeled. This is a factor of ∼ 2 improvement over the NANOGrav 9-year limit, calculated using the same procedure. Previous PTA upper limits on the GWB (as well as their astrophysical and cosmological interpretations) will need revision in light of SSE systematic errors. We use our constraints to characterize the combined influence on the GWB of the stellar mass-density in galactic cores, the eccentricity of SMBH binaries, and SMBH-galactic-bulge scaling relationships. We constrain cosmic-string tension using recent simulations, yielding an SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit of Gµ < 5.3 × 10 −11 -a factor of ∼ 2 better than the published NANOGrav 9-year constraints. Our SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit on the energy density of a primordial GWB (for a radiation-dominated post-inflation Universe) is Ω GWB ( f )h 2 < 3.4 × 10 −10 .

We report results from continued timing observations of PSR J0740+6620, a high-mass, 2.8 ms radio pulsar in orbit with a likely ultracool white dwarf companion. Our data set consists of combined pulse arrival-time measurements made with the 100 m Green Bank Telescope and the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment telescope. We explore the significance of timing-based phenomena arising from general relativistic dynamics and variations in pulse dispersion. When using various statistical methods, we find that combining ∼1.5 yr of additional, high-cadence timing data with previous measurements confirms and improves on previous estimates of relativistic effects within the PSR J0740+6620 system, with the pulsar mass m p = 2.08 − 0.07 + 0.07 M ⊙ (68.3% credibility) determined by the relativistic Shapiro time delay. For the first time, we measure secular variation in the orbital period and argue that this effect arises from apparent acceleration due to significant transverse motion. After incorporating contributions from Galactic differential rotation and off-plane acceleration in the Galactic potential, we obtain a model-dependent distance of d = 1.14 − 0.15 + 0.17 kpc (68.3% credibility). This improved distance confirms the ultracool nature of the white dwarf companion determined from recent optical observations. We discuss the prospects for future observations with next-generation facilities, which will likely improve the precision on m p for J0740+6620 by an order of magnitude within the next few years.

We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15 yr pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings–Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of 1014, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200–1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for the latter Bayes factors using a method that removes interpulsar correlations from our data set, finding p = 10−3 (≈3σ) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of interpulsar correlations yields p = 5 × 10−5 to 1.9 × 10−4 (≈3.5σ–4σ). Assuming a fiducial f −2/3 characteristic strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is 2.4 − 0.6 + 0.7 × 10 − 15 (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1 yr−1. The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings–Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal.