Global production of farmed fish and shellfish has more than doubled in the past 15 years. Many people believe that such growth relieves pressure on ocean fisheries, but the opposite is true for some types of aquaculture. Farming carnivorous species requires large inputs of wild fish for feed. Some aquaculture systems also reduce wild fish supplies through habitat modification, wild seedstock collection and other ecological impacts. On balance, global aquaculture production still adds to world fish supplies; however, if the growing aquaculture industry is to sustain its contribution to world fish supplies, it must reduce wild fish inputs in feed and adopt more ecologically sound management practices.

Systems linking people and nature, known as social-ecological systems, are increasingly understood as complex adaptive systems. Essential features of these complex adaptive systems – such as nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions, individual and spatial heterogeneity, and varying time scales – pose substantial challenges for modeling. However, ignoring these characteristics can distort our picture of how these systems work, causing policies to be less effective or even counterproductive. In this paper we present recent developments in modeling social-ecological systems, illustrate some of these challenges with examples related to coral reefs and grasslands, and identify the implications for economic and policy analysis.

Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector and continues to expand alongside terrestrial crop and livestock production. Using portfolio theory as a conceptual framework, we explore how current interconnections between the aquaculture, crop, livestock, and fisheries sectors act as an impediment to, or an opportunity for, enhanced resilience in the global food system given increased resource scarcity and climate change. Aquaculture can potentially enhance resilience through improved resource use efficiencies and increased diversification of farmed species, locales of production, and feeding strategies. However, aquaculture's reliance on terrestrial crops and wild fish for feeds, its dependence on freshwater and land for culture sites, and its broad array of environmental impacts diminishes its ability to add resilience. Feeds for livestock and farmed fish that are fed rely largely on the same crops, although the fraction destined for aquaculture is presently small (∼4%). As demand for high-value fed aquaculture products grows, competition for these crops will also rise, as will the demand for wild fish as feed inputs. Many of these crops and forage fish are also consumed directly by humans and provide essential nutrition for low-income households. Their rising use in aquafeeds has the potential to increase price levels and volatility, worsening food insecurity among the most vulnerable populations. Although the diversification of global food production systems that includes aquaculture offers promise for enhanced resilience, such promise will not be realized if government policies fail to provide adequate incentives for resource efficiency, equity, and environmental protection.food portfolio management | crop resources | diversity | shocks | global change

Policies may influence large-scale behavioral tipping

The rapid development of intensive fed aquaculture (e.g. finfish and shrimp) throughout the world is associated with concerns about the environmental impacts of such often monospecific practices, especially where activities are highly geographically concentrated or located in suboptimal sites whose assimilative capacity is poorly understood and, consequently, prone to being exceeded. One of the main environmental issues is the direct discharge of significant nutrient loads into coastal waters from open‐water systems and with the effluents from land‐based systems. In its search for best management practices, the aquaculture industry should develop innovative and responsible practices that optimize its efficiency and create diversification, while ensuring the remediation of the consequences of its activities to maintain the health of coastal waters. To avoid pronounced shifts in coastal processes, conversion, not dilution, is a common‐sense solution, used for centuries in Asian countries. By integrating fed aquaculture (finfish, shrimp) with inorganic and organic extractive aquaculture (seaweed and shellfish), the wastes of one resource user become a resource (fertilizer or food) for the others. Such a balanced ecosystem approach provides nutrient bioremediation capability, mutual benefits to the cocultured organisms, economic diversification by producing other value‐added marine crops, and increased profitability per cultivation unit for the aquaculture industry. Moreover, as guidelines and regulations on aquaculture effluents are forthcoming in several countries, using appropriately selected seaweeds as renewable biological nutrient scrubbers represents a cost‐effective means for reaching compliance by reducing the internalization of the total environmental costs. By adopting integrated polytrophic practices, the aquaculture industry should find increasing environmental, economic, and social acceptability and become a full and sustainable partner within the development of integrated coastal management frameworks.