Abstract. We describe in detail the instrumentation and calibrations used in the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), and the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and present a history of the majority of the anthropogenic ozone-depleting and climate-forcing gases in air based on these experiments. Beginning in 1978, these three successive automated high-frequency in situ experiments have documented the long-term behavior of the measured concentrations of these gases over the past 20 years, and show both the evolution of latitudinal gradients and the high-frequency variability due to sources and circulation. We provide estimates of the long-term trends in total chlorine contained in long-lived halocarbons involved in ozone depletion. We summarize interpretations of these measurements using inverse methods to determine trace gas lifetimes and emissions. Finally, we provide a combined observational and modeled reconstruction of the evolution of chlorocarbons by latitude in the atmosphere over the past 60 years which can be used as boundary conditions for interpreting trapped air in glaciers and oceanic measurements of chlorocarbon tracers of the deep oceanic circulation. Some specific conclusions are as follows: (1 are not yet at levels sufficient to contribute significantly to atmospheric chlorine loading. These replacement species could in the future provide independent estimates of the global weighted-average OH concentration provided their industrial emissions are accurately documented; (6) in the future, analysis of pollution events measured using high-frequency in situ measurements of chlorofluorocarbons and their replacements may enable emission estimates at the regional level, which, together with industrial end-use data, are of sufficient accuracy to be capable of identifying regional noncompliance with the Montreal Protocol. IntroductionCurrent concerns about the atmospheric levels of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), A third phase, the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), began over the 1993-1996 time period. AGAGE, which continues to the present, has two instrumental components. First, a highly improved gas chromatographic system measures five biogenic/anthropogenic gases [CH4, N20 , CHC13, CO, and hydrogen ( 2. The second objective is to accurately document the global distributions and temporal behavior of the biogenic/ anthropogenic gases N20 , CH4, CO, H2, CH3C1, CH3Br , and CHC13 over the globe. N20 and CH 4 are important in both the chemistry and radiative budget of the atmosphere, and changes in N20 and CH 4 may also be regarded as sensitive signals of current change in the global biosphere. CO is the major sink for OH, and both CO and CH3C1 are important indicators for regional biomass burning. Together CH3C1 and CHC13 contribute about 20% of the stratospheric chlorine content, and CH3Br contributes about 50% of bromine content [Solomon et al., 1995].3. The third objective is to optimall...
The hydroxyl free radical (OH) is the major oxidizing chemical in the atmosphere, destroying about 3.7 petagrams (Pg) of trace gases each year, including many gases involved in ozone depletion, the greenhouse effect and urban air pollution. Measurements of 1,1,1‐trichloroethane (methyl chloroform, CH3CCl3), which reacts with OH, provide the most accurate method currently utilized for determining the global behavior of OH. We report that CH3CCl3 levels rose steadily from 1978 to reach a maximum in 1992 and have since decreased rapidly to levels in 2004 about 30% of the levels when measurements began in 1978. Analysis of these observations shows that global average OH levels had a small maximum around 1989 and a larger minimum around 1998, with OH concentrations in 2003 being comparable to those in 1979. This post‐1998 recovery of OH reported here contrasts with the situation 4 years ago when reported OH was decreasing. The 1997–1999 OH minimum coincides with, and is likely caused by, major global wildfires and an intense El Nino event at this time.
Abstract.A new analytical inversion method has been developed to determine the regional and global emissions of long-lived atmospheric trace gases. It exploits in situ measurement data from three global networks and builds on backward simulations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The emission information is extracted from the observed concentration increases over a baseline that is itself objectively determined by the inversion algorithm. The method was applied to two hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a, HFC-152a) and a hydrochlorofluorocarbon for the period January 2005 until March 2007. Detailed sensitivity studies with synthetic as well as with real measurement data were done to quantify the influence on the results of the a priori emissions and their uncertainties as well as of the observation and model errors. It was found that the global a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a, HFC-152a and HCFC-22 all increased from 2005 to 2006. Large increases (21%, 16%, 18%, respectively) from 2005 to 2006 were found for China, whereas the emission changes in North America (−9%, 23%, 17%, respectively) and Europe (11%, 11%, −4%, respectively) were mostly smaller and less systematic. For Europe, the a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a and HFC-152a were Correspondence to: A. Stohl (ast@nilu.no) slightly higher than the a priori emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For HCFC-22, the a posteriori emissions for Europe were substantially (by almost a factor 2) higher than the a priori emissions used, which were based on HCFC consumption data reported to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Combined with the reported strongly decreasing HCFC consumption in Europe, this suggests a substantial time lag between the reported time of the HCFC-22 consumption and the actual time of the HCFC-22 emission. Conversely, in China where HCFC consumption is increasing rapidly according to the UNEP data, the a posteriori emissions are only about 40% of the a priori emissions. This reveals a substantial storage of HCFC-22 and potential for future emissions in China. Deficiencies in the geographical distribution of stations measuring halocarbons in relation to estimating regional emissions are also discussed in the paper.
We present atmospheric baseline growth rates from the 1970s to the present for the long-lived, strongly infrared-absorbing perfluorocarbons (PFCs) tetrafluoromethane (CF<sub>4</sub>), hexafluoroethane (C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub>), and octafluoropropane (C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub>) in both hemispheres, measured with improved accuracies (~1–2%) and precisions (<0.3%, or <0.2 ppt (parts per trillion dry air mole fraction), for CF<sub>4</sub>; <1.5%, or <0.06 ppt, for C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub>; <4.5%, or <0.02 ppt, for C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub> within the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). Pre-industrial background values of 34.7±0.2 ppt CF<sub>4</sub> and 0.1±0.02 ppt C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub> were measured in air extracted from Greenland ice and Antarctic firn. Anthropogenic sources are thought to be primary aluminum production (CF<sub>4</sub>, C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub>, C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub>), semiconductor production (C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub>, CF<sub>4</sub>, C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub>) and refrigeration use (C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub>). Global emissions calculated with the AGAGE 2-D 12-box model are significantly higher than most previous emission estimates. The sum of CF<sub>4</sub> and C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub> emissions estimated from aluminum production and non-metal production are lower than observed global top-down emissions, with gaps of ~6 Gg/yr CF<sub>4</sub> in recent years. The significant discrepancies between previous CF<sub>4</sub>, C<sub>2</sub>F<sub>6</sub>, and C<sub>3</sub>F<sub>8</sub> emission estimates and observed global top-down emissions estimated from AGAGE measurements emphasize the need for more accurate, transparent, and complete emission reporting, and for verification with atmospheric measurements to assess the emission sources of these long-lived and potent greenhouse gases, which alter the radiative budget of the atmosphere, essentially permanently, once emitted
Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m À2 in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to "no HFC policy" projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m À2 by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO 2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.
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