Gold-standard diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) relies on histopathological staging systems. Using the topographical information from [18F]MK6240 tau positron-emission tomography (PET), we applied the Braak tau staging system to 324 living individuals. We used PET-based Braak stage to model the trajectories of amyloid-β, phosphorylated tau (pTau) in cerebrospinal fluid (pTau181, pTau217, pTau231 and pTau235) and plasma (pTau181 and pTau231), neurodegeneration and cognitive symptoms. We identified nonlinear AD biomarker trajectories corresponding to the spatial extent of tau-PET, with modest biomarker changes detectable by Braak stage II and significant changes occurring at stages III–IV, followed by plateaus. Early Braak stages were associated with isolated memory impairment, whereas Braak stages V–VI were incompatible with normal cognition. In 159 individuals with follow-up tau-PET, progression beyond stage III took place uniquely in the presence of amyloid-β positivity. Our findings support PET-based Braak staging as a framework to model the natural history of AD and monitor AD severity in living humans.

ImportanceThe recent proliferation of phosphorylated tau (p-tau) biomarkers has raised questions about their preferential association with the hallmark pathologies of Alzheimer disease (AD): amyloid-β plaques and tau neurofibrillary tangles.ObjectiveTo determine whether cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma p-tau biomarkers preferentially reflect cerebral β-amyloidosis or neurofibrillary tangle aggregation measured with positron emission tomography (PET).Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis was a cross-sectional study of 2 observational cohorts: the Translational Biomarkers in Aging and Dementia (TRIAD) study, with data collected between October 2017 and August 2021, and the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), with data collected between September 2015 and November 2019. TRIAD was a single-center study, and ADNI was a multicenter study. Two independent subsamples were derived from TRIAD. The first TRIAD subsample comprised individuals assessed with CSF p-tau (p-tau181, p-tau217, p-tau231, p-tau235), [18F]AZD4694 amyloid PET, and [18F]MK6240 tau PET. The second TRIAD subsample included individuals assessed with plasma p-tau (p-tau181, p-tau217, p-tau231), [18F]AZD4694 amyloid PET, and [18F]MK6240 tau PET. An independent cohort from ADNI comprised individuals assessed with CSF p-tau181, [18F]florbetapir PET, and [18F]flortaucipir PET. Participants were included based on the availability of p-tau and PET biomarker assessments collected within 9 months of each other. Exclusion criteria were a history of head trauma or magnetic resonance imaging/PET safety contraindications. No participants who met eligibility criteria were excluded.ExposuresAmyloid PET, tau PET, and CSF and plasma assessments of p-tau measured with single molecule array (Simoa) assay or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.Main Outcomes and MeasuresAssociations between p-tau biomarkers with amyloid PET and tau PET.ResultsA total of 609 participants (mean [SD] age, 66.9 [13.6] years; 347 female [57%]; 262 male [43%]) were included in the study. For all 4 phosphorylation sites assessed in CSF, p-tau was significantly more closely associated with amyloid-PET values than tau-PET values (p-tau181 difference, 13%; 95% CI, 3%-22%; P = .006; p-tau217 difference, 11%; 95% CI, 3%-20%; P = .003; p-tau231 difference, 15%; 95% CI, 5%-22%; P < .001; p-tau235 difference, 9%; 95% CI, 1%-19%; P = .02) . These results were replicated with plasma p-tau181 (difference, 11%; 95% CI, 1%-22%; P = .02), p-tau217 (difference, 9%; 95% CI, 1%-19%; P = .02), p-tau231 (difference, 13%; 95% CI, 3%-24%; P = .009), and CSF p-tau181 (difference, 9%; 95% CI, 1%-21%; P = .02) in independent cohorts.Conclusions and RelevanceResults of this cross-sectional study of 2 observational cohorts suggest that the p-tau abnormality as an early event in AD pathogenesis was associated with amyloid-β accumulation and highlights the need for careful interpretation of p-tau biomarkers in the context of the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration, or A/T/(N), framework.