Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R(2) increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase.

Acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE) is a rapidly progressive encephalopathy that can occur in otherwise healthy children after common viral infections such as influenza and parainfluenza. Most ANE is sporadic and nonrecurrent (isolated ANE). However, we identified a 7 Mb interval containing a susceptibility locus (ANE1) in a family segregating recurrent ANE as an incompletely penetrant, autosomal-dominant trait. We now report that all affected individuals and obligate carriers in this family are heterozygous for a missense mutation (c.1880C-->T, p.Thr585Met) in the gene encoding the nuclear pore protein Ran Binding Protein 2 (RANBP2). To determine whether this mutation is the susceptibility allele, we screened controls and other patients with ANE who are unrelated to the index family. Patients from 9 of 15 additional kindreds with familial or recurrent ANE had the identical mutation. It arose de novo in two families and independently in several other families. Two other patients with familial ANE had different RANBP2 missense mutations that altered conserved residues. None of the three RANBP2 missense mutations were found in 19 patients with isolated ANE or in unaffected controls. We conclude that missense mutations in RANBP2 are susceptibility alleles for familial and recurrent cases of ANE.

APOE ε4, the most significant genetic risk factor for Alzheimer disease (AD), may mask effects of other loci. We re-analyzed genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP) Consortium in APOE ε4+ (10,352 cases and 9,207 controls) and APOE ε4− (7,184 cases and 26,968 controls) subgroups as well as in the total sample testing for interaction between a SNP and APOE ε4 status. Suggestive associations (P<1x10−4) in stage 1 were evaluated in an independent sample (stage 2) containing 4,203 subjects (APOE ε4+: 1,250 cases and 536 controls; APOE ε4-: 718 cases and 1,699 controls). Among APOE ε4− subjects, novel genome-wide significant (GWS) association was observed with 17 SNPs (all between KANSL1 and LRRC37A on chromosome 17 near MAPT) in a meta-analysis of the stage 1 and stage 2 datasets (best SNP, rs2732703, P=5·8x10−9). Conditional analysis revealed that rs2732703 accounted for association signals in the entire 100 kilobase region that includes MAPT. Except for previously identified AD loci showing stronger association in APOE ε4+ subjects (CR1 and CLU) or APOE ε4− subjects (MS4A6A/MS4A4A/ MS4A6E), no other SNPs were significantly associated with AD in a specific APOE genotype subgroup. In addition, the finding in the stage 1 sample that AD risk is significantly influenced by the interaction of APOE with rs1595014 in TMEM106B (P=1·6x10−7) is noteworthy because TMEM106B variants have previously been associated with risk of frontotemporal dementia. Expression quantitative trait locus analysis revealed that rs113986870, one of the GWS SNPs near rs2732703, is significantly associated with four KANSL1 probes that target transcription of the first translated exon and an untranslated exon in hippocampus (P≤1.3x10−8), frontal cortex (P≤1.3x10−9), and temporal cortex (P≤1.2x10−11). Rs113986870 is also strongly associated with a MAPT probe that targets transcription of alternatively spliced exon 3 in frontal cortex (P=9.2x10−6) and temporal cortex (P=2.6x10−6). Our APOE-stratified GWAS is the first to show GWS association for AD with SNPs in the chromosome 17q21.31 region. Replication of this finding in independent samples is needed to verify that SNPs in this region have significantly stronger effects on AD risk in persons lacking APOE ε4 compared to persons carrying this allele, and if this is found to hold, further examination of this region and studies aimed at deciphering the mechanism(s) are warranted.

T lymphocyte activation by antigen conditions adaptive immune responses and immunopathologies, but we know little about its variation in humans, and its genetic or environmental roots. We analyzed gene expression in CD4+ T cells during unbiased activation or in Th17 conditions from 348 healthy subjects representing European, Asian and African ancestries. We observed inter-individual variability, most marked for cytokine transcripts, with clear biases on the basis of ancestry, and following patterns more complex than simple Th1/2/17 partitions. We identified 39 genetic loci specifically associated in cis with activated gene expression. We further fine-mapped and validated a single-base variant that modulates YY1 binding and the activity of an enhancer element controlling the autoimmune-associated IL2RA gene, affecting its activity in activated but not regulatory T cells. Thus, inter-individual variability affects the fundamental immunologic process of T helper activation, with important connections to autoimmune disease.