Background Surgical, anaesthetic, and obstetric (SAO) health-care system strengthening is needed to address the emergency and essential surgical care that approximately 5 billion individuals lack globally. To our knowledge, a complete, non-modelled national situational analysis based on the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery surgical indicators has not been done. We aimed to undertake a complete situation analysis of SAO system preparedness, service delivery, and financial risk protection using the core surgical indicators proposed by the Commission in Colombia, an upper-middle-income country.Methods Data to inform the six core surgical system indicators were abstracted from the Colombian national health information system and the most recent national health survey done in 2007. Geographical access to a Bellwether hospital (defined as a hospital capable of providing essential and emergency surgery) within 2 h was assessed by determining 2 h drive time boundaries around Bellwether facilities and the population within and outside these boundaries. Physical 2 h access to a Bellwether was determined by the presence of a motor vehicle suitable for individual transportation. The Department Administrativo Nacional de Estadística population projection for 2016 and 2018 was used to calculate the SAO provider density. Total operative volume was calculated for 2016 and expressed nationally per 100 000 population. The total number of postoperative deaths that occurred within 30 days of a procedure was divided by the total operative volume to calculate the all-cause, non-risk-adjusted postoperative mortality. The proportion of the population subject to impoverishing costs was calculated by subtracting the baseline number of impoverished individuals from those who fell below the poverty line once out-of-pocket payments were accounted for. Individuals who incurred out-of-pocket payments that were more than 10% of their annual household income were considered to have experienced catastrophic expenditure. Using GIS mapping, SAO system preparedness, service delivery, and cost protection were also contextualised by socioeconomic status. FindingsIn 2016, at least 7•1 million people (15•1% of the population) in Colombia did not have geographical access to SAO services within a 2 h driving distance. SAO provider density falls short of the Commission's minimum target of 20 providers per 100 000 population, at an estimated density of 13•7 essential SAO health-care providers per 100 000 population in 2018. Lower socioeconomic status of a municipality, as indicated by proportion of people enrolled in the subsidised insurance regime, was associated with a smaller proportion of the population in the municipality being within 2 h of a Bellwether facility, and the most socioeconomically disadvantaged municipalities often had no SAO providers. Furthermore, Colombian providers appear to be working at or beyond capacity, doing 2690-3090 procedures per 100 000 population annually, but they have maintained a relatively low median postoperative mo...

BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer‐related mortality worldwide with an approximate 5‐year survival of greater than 50% in patients after surgical resection. Survival estimates have limited utility for patients who have survived several years after initial treatment. We analyzed how conditional survival (CS) after curative‐intent surgery for HCC predicts survival estimates over time.MethodsNCDB (2004‐2014) was queried for patients undergoing definitive surgical resection for HCC. Cumulative overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan‐Meier method, and CS at x years after diagnosis was calculated as CS1 = OS (X+5)/OS(X).ResultsThe final analysis encompassed 11 357 patients. Age, negative margin status, grade severity and radiation before surgery were statistically significant predictors of cumulative overall conditional survival (P ≤ .0001). Overall unconditional 5‐year survival was 65.7%, but CS estimates were higher. A patient who has already survived 3 years has an additional 2‐year, or 5‐year CS, estimate of 86.96%.ConclusionSurvival estimates following hepatic resection in HCC patients change according to survival time accrued since surgery. CS estimates are improved relative to unconditional OS. The impact of different variables influencing OS is likewise nonlinear over the course of time after surgery.

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