Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

BackgroundDiseases caused by Aedes-borne viruses, such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever, are emerging and reemerging globally. The causes are multifactorial and include global trade, international travel, urbanisation, water storage practices, lack of resources for intervention, and an inadequate evidence base for the public health impact of Aedes control tools. National authorities need comprehensive evidence-based guidance on how and when to implement Aedes control measures tailored to local entomological and epidemiological conditions.Methods and findingsThis review is one of a series being conducted by the Worldwide Insecticide resistance Network (WIN). It describes a framework for implementing Integrated Aedes Management (IAM) to improve control of diseases caused by Aedes-borne viruses based on available evidence. IAM consists of a portfolio of operational actions and priorities for the control of Aedes-borne viruses that are tailored to different epidemiological and entomological risk scenarios. The framework has 4 activity pillars: (i) integrated vector and disease surveillance, (ii) vector control, (iii) community mobilisation, and (iv) intra- and intersectoral collaboration as well as 4 supporting activities: (i) capacity building, (ii) research, (iii) advocacy, and (iv) policies and laws.ConclusionsIAM supports implementation of the World Health Organisation Global Vector Control Response (WHO GVCR) and provides a comprehensive framework for health authorities to devise and deliver sustainable, effective, integrated, community-based, locally adapted vector control strategies in order to reduce the burden of Aedes-transmitted arboviruses. The success of IAM requires strong commitment and leadership from governments to maintain proactive disease prevention programs and preparedness for rapid responses to outbreaks.

Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which is transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Although chikungunya fever is rarely fatal, patients can experience debilitating symptoms that last from months to years. Here we comprehensively assess the global distribution of chikungunya and produce high-resolution maps, using an established modelling framework that combines a comprehensive occurrence database with bespoke environmental correlates, including up-to-date Aedes distribution maps. This enables estimation of the current total population-at-risk of CHIKV transmission and identification of areas where the virus may spread to in the future. We identified 94 countries with good evidence for current CHIKV presence and a set of countries in the New and Old World with potential for future CHIKV establishment, demonstrated by high environmental suitability for transmission and in some cases previous sporadic reports. Aedes aegypti presence was identified as one of the major contributing factors to CHIKV transmission but significant geographical heterogeneity exists. We estimated 1.3 billion people are living in areas at-risk of CHIKV transmission. These maps provide a baseline for identifying areas where prevention and control efforts should be prioritised and can be used to guide estimation of the global burden of CHIKV.

Abstractobjective To systematically review the literature on the effectiveness of Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti), when used as a single agent in the field, for the control of dengue vectors.method Systematic literature search of the published and grey literature was carried out using the following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, WHOLIS, ELDIS, the New York Academy of Medicine Gray Literature Report, Africa-Wide and Google. All results were screened for duplicates and assessed for eligibility. Relevant data were extracted, and a quality assessment was conducted using the CONSORT 2010 checklist.results Fourteen studies satisfied the eligibility criteria, incorporating a wide range of interventions and outcome measures. Six studies were classified as effectiveness studies, and the remaining eight examined the efficacy of Bti in more controlled settings. Twelve (all eight efficacy studies and 4 of 6 effectiveness studies) reported reductions in entomological indices with an average duration of control of 2-4 weeks. The two effectiveness studies that did not report significant entomological reductions were both cluster-randomised study designs that utilised basic interventions such as environmental management or general education on environment control practices in their respective control groups.Only one study described a reduction in entomological indices together with epidemiological data, reporting one dengue case in the treated area compared to 15 dengue cases in the untreated area during the observed study period.conclusion While Bti can be effective in reducing the number of immature Aedes in treated containers in the short term, there is very limited evidence that dengue morbidity can be reduced through the use of Bti alone. There is currently insufficient evidence to recommend the use of Bti as a single agent for the long-term control of dengue vectors and prevention of dengue fever. Further studies examining the role of Bti in combination with other strategies to control dengue vectors are warranted.

BackgroundVector-borne diseases cause a significant proportion of the overall burden of disease across the globe, accounting for over 10 % of the burden of infectious diseases. Despite the availability of effective interventions for many of these diseases, a lack of resources prevents their effective control. Many existing vector control interventions are known to be effective against multiple diseases, so combining vector control programmes to simultaneously tackle several diseases could offer more cost-effective and therefore sustainable disease reductions.DiscussionThe highly successful cross-disease integration of vaccine and mass drug administration programmes in low-resource settings acts a precedent for cross-disease vector control. Whilst deliberate implementation of vector control programmes across multiple diseases has yet to be trialled on a large scale, a number of examples of ‘accidental’ cross-disease vector control suggest the potential of such an approach. Combining contemporary high-resolution global maps of the major vector-borne pathogens enables us to quantify overlap in their distributions and to estimate the populations jointly at risk of multiple diseases. Such an analysis shows that over 80 % of the global population live in regions of the world at risk from one vector-borne disease, and more than half the world’s population live in areas where at least two different vector-borne diseases pose a threat to health. Combining information on co-endemicity with an assessment of the overlap of vector control methods effective against these diseases allows us to highlight opportunities for such integration.SummaryMalaria, leishmaniasis, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue are prime candidates for combined vector control. All four of these diseases overlap considerably in their distributions and there is a growing body of evidence for the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets, screens, and curtains for controlling all of their vectors. The real-world effectiveness of cross-disease vector control programmes can only be evaluated by large-scale trials, but there is clear evidence of the potential of such an approach to enable greater overall health benefit using the limited funds available.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0491-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.