Soaring cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are pummeling the global health system. Overwhelmed health facilities have endeavored to mitigate the pandemic, but mortality of COVID-19 continues to increase. Here, we present a mortality risk prediction model for COVID-19 (MRPMC) that uses patients’ clinical data on admission to stratify patients by mortality risk, which enables prediction of physiological deterioration and death up to 20 days in advance. This ensemble model is built using four machine learning methods including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, and Neural Network. We validate MRPMC in an internal validation cohort and two external validation cohorts, where it achieves an AUC of 0.9621 (95% CI: 0.9464–0.9778), 0.9760 (0.9613–0.9906), and 0.9246 (0.8763–0.9729), respectively. This model enables expeditious and accurate mortality risk stratification of patients with COVID-19, and potentially facilitates more responsive health systems that are conducive to high risk COVID-19 patients.

No abstract

FOLFIRINOX chemotherapy has shown remarkable responses in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC), and has significantly improved prognosis. However, FOLFIRINOX is currently not frequently applied in China because of its high incidence of adverse events, and there is no recognized optimization for this therapy in Chinese population. Modification of FOLFIRINOX may be better for its acceptance in China. In this study, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of modified-FOLFIRINOX in patients with MPC. A total of 62 MPC patients were treated with modified-FOLFIRINOX (no Fluorouracil bolus, 85% Oxaliplatin and 75% Irinotecan) between April 2014 and April 2017 in our institute. 40 of them were evaluated, with a response rate of 32.5% (13/40). The frequent grade 3/4 adverse events are neutropenia (29%) and alanine aminotransferase elevation (14.5%). No treatment-related death was observed. The median overall survival and median progression-free survival are 10.3 months and 7.0 months, respectively. In conclusion, modified-FOLFIRINOX had significantly improved tolerance with similar efficacy to FOLFIRINOX. These findings may provide evidence for the use of FOLFIRINOX in Chinese patients with MPC.