Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

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Background/Objectives: Blood donors attending a donation session may be deferred from donating blood due to a failure to meet low hemoglobin (Hb) thresholds. This costs the blood donor service, and donors, valuable time and resources. In addition, donors who are deferred may have more symptoms and as a direct and/or indirect effect of their experience return rates of donors deferred for low Hb are reduced, even in repeat donors. It is therefore vital that low Hb deferral (LHD) is minimized. The aim of this updated systematic review is to expand the evidence base for factors which affect a donor's risk of deferral due to low Hb. Materials/Methods: Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE, Embase, The Cochrane Library and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry to March 2019. Demographic data, donor history, hematological/biological factors and the primary outcome of deferral due to low Hb were extracted. Our primary outcome was deferral due to low Hb. Analyses were descriptive and quantitative; pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained by meta-analysis using random effects models. Results: A total of 116 studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis showed a significantly greater risk of LHD in females compared with males in studies applying universal Hb thresholds for males and females (OR 14.62 95%CI 12.43-17.19) and in those which used sex-specific thresholds (OR 5.73, 95%CI 4.36-7.53). Higher rates of LHD were also associated with increasing age in men, low body weight, shorter inter-donation interval, donors of Hispanic or African descent, higher ambient temperature, donors with low ferritin levels and donation in a fixed donor center. There was conflicting evidence on the effect of new and repeat donor status, and blood group. Conclusion: This work has strengthened the evidence of the previous review in identifying factors that should be considered in studies of donor deferral and highlighting areas in need of further study, including ABO and Rh blood groups, previous platelet donation, diet, smoking, time of day, and genetic data. These factors may lead to individually tailored donation criteria for safe and efficient donation in the future.