After three years of cold conditions, warm water has returned to Ilulissat Icefjord, home to Jakobshavn Isbrae-Greenland's largest outlet glacier. Jakobshavn has slowed and thickened since 2016, when waters near the glacier cooled from 3 °C to 1.5 °C. Fjord temperatures remained cold through at least the end of 2019, but in March 2020, temperatures in the fjord warmed to 2.8 °C. As a result of the warming, we forecast that Jakobshavn Isbrae will accelerate and resume thinning during the 2020 melt season. The fjord's profound in uence on glacier behavior, and the connectivity between fjord conditions and regional ocean climate imply a degree of predictability that we aim to test with this forecast. Given the global importance of sea-level rise, we must advance our ability to forecast such rapidly changing systems, and this work represents an important rst step in glacier forecasting.

We present a new bed elevation dataset for Greenland derived from a combination of multiple airborne ice thickness surveys undertaken between the 1970s and 2012. Around 420 000 line kilometres of airborne data were used, with roughly 70% of this having been collected since the year 2000, when the last comprehensive compilation was undertaken. The airborne data were combined with satellite-derived elevations for non-glaciated terrain to produce a consistent bed digital elevation model (DEM) over the entire island including across the glaciated–ice free boundary. The DEM was extended to the continental margin with the aid of bathymetric data, primarily from a compilation for the Arctic. Ice thickness was determined where an ice shelf exists from a combination of surface elevation and radar soundings. The across-track spacing between flight lines warranted interpolation at 1 km postings for significant sectors of the ice sheet. Grids of ice surface elevation, error estimates for the DEM, ice thickness and data sampling density were also produced alongside a mask of land/ocean/grounded ice/floating ice. Errors in bed elevation range from a minimum of ±10 m to about ±300 m, as a function of distance from an observation and local topographic variability. A comparison with the compilation published in 2001 highlights the improvement in resolution afforded by the new datasets, particularly along the ice sheet margin, where ice velocity is highest and changes in ice dynamics most marked. We estimate that the volume of ice included in our land-ice mask would raise mean sea level by 7.36 m, excluding any solid earth effects that would take place during ice sheet decay

Fluctuations in surface melting are known to affect the speed of glaciers and ice sheets, but their impact on the Greenland ice sheet in a warming climate remains uncertain. Although some studies suggest that greater melting produces greater ice-sheet acceleration, others have identified a long-term decrease in Greenland's flow despite increased melting. Here we use satellite observations of ice motion recorded in a land-terminating sector of southwest Greenland to investigate the manner in which ice flow develops during years of markedly different melting. Although peak rates of ice speed-up are positively correlated with the degree of melting, mean summer flow rates are not, because glacier slowdown occurs, on average, when a critical run-off threshold of about 1.4 centimetres a day is exceeded. In contrast to the first half of summer, when flow is similar in all years, speed-up during the latter half is 62 ± 16 per cent less in warmer years. Consequently, in warmer years, the period of fast ice flow is three times shorter and, overall, summer ice flow is slower. This behaviour is at odds with that expected from basal lubrication alone. Instead, it mirrors that of mountain glaciers, where melt-induced acceleration of flow ceases during years of high melting once subglacial drainage becomes efficient. A model of ice-sheet flow that captures switching between cavity and channel drainage modes is consistent with the run-off threshold, fast-flow periods, and later-summer speeds we have observed. Simulations of the Greenland ice-sheet flow under climate warming scenarios should account for the dynamic evolution of subglacial drainage; a simple model of basal lubrication alone misses key aspects of the ice sheet's response to climate warming.

We measure hydrological parameters in meltwater draining from an outlet glacier in west Greenland to investigate seasonal changes in the structure and behaviour of the hydrological system of a large catchment in the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Our data reveal seasonal upglacier expansion and increase in hydraulic efficiency of the subglacial drainage system, across a catchment >600 km2, to distances >50 km from the ice‐sheet margin. This expansion occurs episodically in response to the drainage of surface meltwaters into a hitherto inefficient subglacial drainage system as new input locations become active progressively further upglacier; this system is similar to Alpine glaciers. These observations provide the first synopsis of seasonal hydrological behaviour in the ablation zone of the GrIS.

We present global positioning system observations that capture the full inland extent of ice motion variations in 2009 along a transect in the west Greenland Ice sheet margin. In situ measurements of air temperature and surface ablation, and satellite monitoring of ice surface albedo and supraglacial lake drainage are used to investigate hydrological controls on ice velocity changes. We find a strong positive correlation between rates of annual ablation and changes in annual ice motion along the transect, with sites nearest