Background Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs; e.g., abuse, neglect, parental loss, etc.) have been associated with increased risk for later-life disease and dysfunction using adults’ retrospective self-reports of ACEs. Research should test whether associations between ACEs and health outcomes are the same for prospective and retrospective ACE measures. Methods We estimated agreement between ACEs prospectively-recorded throughout childhood (by Study staff at Study member ages 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, and 15) and retrospectively-recalled in adulthood (by Study members when they reached age 38), in the population-representative Dunedin cohort (N=1,037). We related both retrospective and prospective ACE measures to physical, mental, cognitive, and social health at midlife measured through both objective (e.g., biomarkers and neuropsychological tests) and subjective (e.g., self-reported) means. Results Dunedin and CDC ACE distributions were similar. Retrospective and prospective measures of adversity showed moderate agreement (r=.47, p<.001; weighted Kappa = .31, 95% CI: .27–.35). Both associated with all midlife outcomes. As compared to prospective ACEs, retrospective ACEs showed stronger associations with life outcomes that were subjectively assessed, and weaker associations with life outcomes that were objectively assessed. Recalled ACEs and poor subjective outcomes were correlated regardless of whether prospectively-recorded ACEs were evident. Individuals who recalled more ACEs than had been prospectively recorded were more neurotic than average, and individuals who recalled fewer ACEs than recorded were more agreeable. Conclusions Prospective ACE records confirm associations between childhood adversity and negative life outcomes found previously using retrospective ACE reports. However, more agreeable and neurotic dispositions may respectively bias retrospective ACE measures toward underestimating the impact of adversity on objectively-measured life outcomes and overestimating the impact of adversity on self-reported outcomes. Associations between personality factors and the propensity to recall adversity were extremely modest and warrant further investigation. Risk predictions based on retrospective ACE reports should utilize objective outcome measures. Where objective outcome measurements are difficult to obtain, correction factors may be warranted.

Objective Despite a prevailing assumption that adult ADHD is a childhood-onset neurodevelopmental disorder, no prospective-longitudinal study has described the childhoods of the adult-ADHD population. We report follow-back analyses of ADHD cases diagnosed in adulthood, alongside follow-forward analyses of ADHD cases diagnosed in childhood, in one cohort. Method Participants belonged to a representative birth cohort of 1,037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-73 and followed to age 38, with 95% retention. Symptoms of ADHD, associated clinical features, comorbid disorders, neuropsychological deficits, GWAS-derived polygenic risk, and life impairment indicators were assessed. Data sources were participants, parents, teachers, informants, neuropsychological testing, and administrative records. Adult ADHD diagnoses used DSM5 criteria, apart from onset-age and cross-setting corroboration, which were study outcomes. Results As expected, the childhood-ADHD group showed 6% prevalence, male excess, childhood comorbid disorders, neurocognitive deficits, polygenic risk, and, despite having outgrown their ADHD diagnosis, residual adult life impairment. As expected, the adult-ADHD group showed 3% prevalence, gender balance, adult substance dependence, adult life impairment, and treatment contact. Unexpectedly, the childhood-ADHD and adult-ADHD groups comprised virtually non-overlapping sets; 90% of adult-ADHD cases lacked a history of childhood ADHD. Also unexpectedly, the adult-ADHD group did not show tested neuropsychological deficits in childhood or adulthood, nor did they show polygenic risk for childhood ADHD. Conclusion Findings raise the possibility that adults presenting with the ADHD symptom picture may not have a childhood-onset neurodevelopmental disorder. If this finding is replicated, then the disorder's place in the classification system must be reconsidered, and research must investigate the etiology of adult ADHD.

IMPORTANCE Mental health professionals typically encounter patients at 1 point in patients' lives.This cross-sectional window understandably fosters focus on the current presenting diagnosis.Research programs, treatment protocols, specialist clinics, and specialist journals are oriented to presenting diagnoses, on the assumption that diagnosis informs about causes and prognosis. This study tests an alternative hypothesis: people with mental disorders experience many different kinds of disorders across diagnostic families, when followed for 4 decades. OBJECTIVETo describe mental disorder life histories across the first half of the life course. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cohort study involved participants born in New Zealand from 1972 to 1973 who were enrolled in the population-representative Dunedin Study. Participants were observed from birth to age 45 years (until April 2019). Data were analyzed from May 2019 to January 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Diagnosed impairing disorders were assessed 9 times from ages 11 to 45 years. Brain function was assessed through neurocognitive examinations conducted at age 3 years, neuropsychological testing during childhood and adulthood, and midlife neuroimaging-based brain age. RESULTSOf 1037 original participants (535 male [51.6%]), 1013 had mental health data available.The proportions of participants meeting the criteria for a mental disorder were as follows: 35% (346 of 975) at ages 11 to 15 years, 50% (473 of 941) at age 18 years, 51% (489 of 961) at age 21 years, 48% (472 of 977) at age 26 years, 46% (444 of 969) at age 32 years, 45% (429 of 955) at age 38 years, and 44% (407 of 927) at age 45 years. The onset of the disorder occurred by adolescence for 59% of participants (600 of 1013), eventually affecting 86% of the cohort (869 of 1013) by midlife. By age 45 years, 85% of participants (737 of 869) with a disorder had accumulated comorbid diagnoses.

Policy-makers are interested in early-years interventions to ameliorate childhood risks. They hope for improved adult outcomes in the long run, bringing return on investment. How much return can be expected depends, partly, on how strongly childhood risks forecast adult outcomes. But there is disagreement about whether childhood determines adulthood. We integrated multiple nationwide administrative databases and electronic medical records with the four-decade Dunedin birth-cohort study to test child-to-adult prediction in a different way, by using a population-segmentation approach. A segment comprising one-fifth of the cohort accounted for 36% of the cohort’s injury insurance-claims; 40% of excess obese-kilograms; 54% of cigarettes smoked; 57% of hospital nights; 66% of welfare benefits; 77% of fatherless childrearing; 78% of prescription fills; and 81% of criminal convictions. Childhood risks, including poor age-three brain health, predicted this segment with large effect sizes. Early-years interventions effective with this population segment could yield very large returns on investment.

No abstract