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We investigated the predictive value of arterial stiffness to assess cardiovascular risk in elderly community-dwelling people by means of a multivariate Cox model. In 298 people older than 75 years (120 men and 178 women, average age: 79.6 years), brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was measured between the right arm and ankle in a supine position. The LILAC study started on July 25, 2000, consultation was repeated yearly, and the last follow-up ended on November 30, 2004. During this follow-up span of 1227 days, there were nine cardiovascular deaths, the cause of death being myocardial infarction for two men and three women or stroke for two men and two women. In Cox proportional hazard models, baPWV as well as age, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Hasegawa Dementia Scale Revised (HDSR) and the low-frequency/high-frequency (LF/HF) ratio showed a statistically significant association with the occurrence of cardiovascular death. A two-point increase in MMSE and HDSR score significantly protected against cardiovascular death, the relative risk (RR) being 0.776 (P = 0.0369) and 0.753 (P = 0.0029), respectively. The LF/HF ratio also was significant (P = 0.025), but the other indices of HRV were not. After adjustment for age and HDSR, a 200 cm/s increase in baPWV was associated with a 30.2% increase in risk (RR = 1.302, 95% CI: 1.110-1.525), and a 500 cm/s increase in baPWV with a 93.3% increase in risk (RR = 1.933, 95% CI: 1.300-2.874, P = 0.0011), whereas the LF/HF ratio was no longer associated with a statistically significant increase in cardiovascular mortality. In elderly community-dwelling people, arterial stiffness measured by means of baPWV predicted the occurrence of cardiovascular death beyond the prediction provided by age, gender, blood pressure and cognitive functions. baPWV should be added to the cardiovascular assessment in various clinical settings, including field medical surveys and preventive screening. The early detection of risk by chronomics allows the timely institution of prophylactic measures, thereby shifting the focus from rehabilitation to prehabilitation medicine, as a public service to several Japanese towns.

Several cohort studies have examined the association of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) with the risk of stroke or myocardial infarction in apparently healthy persons. We investigated the predictive value of IMT of cardiovascular mortality in elderly community-dwelling people, beyond the prediction provided by age and MMSE, assessed by means of a multivariate Cox model. Carotid IMT and plaque were evaluated bilaterally with ultrasonography in 298 people older than 75 years (120 men and 178 women, average age: 79.6 years). The LILAC study started on July 25, 2000. Consultations were repeated every year. The follow-up ended on November 30, 2004. During the mean follow-up span of 1152 days, 30 subjects (21 men and nine women) died. Nine deaths were attributable to cardiovascular causes (myocardial infarction: two men and three women; stroke: two men and two women). The age- and MMSE-adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of developing all-cause mortality was assessed. A 0.3 mm increase in left IMT was associated with a RR of predicted 1.647 (1.075-2.524), and a similar increase in right IMT with a RR of 3.327 (1.429-7.746). For cardiovascular mortality, the corresponding RR values were 2.351 (1.029-5.372) and 2.890 (1.059-7.891), respectively. Carotid IMT assessed by ultrasonography is positively associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death in elderly community-dwelling people.