High‐speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium‐level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high‐speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate high‐speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation between the coronal hole area observed in Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images and solar wind properties at the near‐Earth environment, the WSA model establishes a link between properties of the open magnetic field lines extending from the photosphere to the corona and the background solar wind conditions. We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large‐scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root‐mean‐square error, RMSE ≈100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high‐speed solar wind streams (threat score, TS ≈ 0.37). The predicted high‐speed streams show typical uncertainties in the arrival time of about 1 day and uncertainties in the speed of about 100 km/s. General advantages and disadvantages of the investigated solar wind models are diagnosed and outlined.

Coronal holes are usually defined as dark structures seen in the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray spectrum which are generally associated with open magnetic fields. Deriving reliably the coronal hole boundary is of high interest, as its area, underlying magnetic field, and other properties give important hints as regards high speed solar wind acceleration processes and compression regions arriving at Earth. In this study we present a new threshold-based extraction method, which incorporates the intensity gradient along the coronal hole boundary, which is implemented as a user-friendly SSW-IDL GUI. The Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) enables the user to download data, perform guided coronal hole extraction and analyze the underlying photospheric magnetic field. We use CATCH to analyze non-polar coronal holes during the SDO-era, based on 193 Å filtergrams taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and magnetograms taken by the Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager (HMI), both on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Between 2010 and 2019 we investigate 707 coronal holes that are located close to the central meridian. We find coronal holes distributed across latitudes of about ± 60 • , for which we derive sizes between 1.6 × 10 9 and 1.8 × 10 11 km 2. The absolute value of the mean signed magnetic field strength tends towards an average of 2.9 ± 1.9 G. As far as the abundance and size of coronal holes is concerned, we find no distinct trend towards the northern or southern hemisphere. We find that variations in local and global conditions may significantly change Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

Interplanetary space is characteristically structured mainly by high-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes and transient disturbances such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). While high-speed solar wind streams pose a continuous outflow, CMEs abruptly disrupt the rather steady structure causing large deviations from the quiet solar wind conditions. For the first time, we give a quantification of the duration of disturbed conditions (preconditioning) for interplanetary space caused by CMEs. To this aim, we investigate the plasma speed component of the solar wind and the impact of in situ detected CMEs (ICMEs), compared to different background solar wind models (ESWF, WSA, persistence model) for the time range 2011-2015. We quantify in terms of standard error measures the deviations between modeled background solar wind speed and observed solar wind speed. Using the mean absolute error, we obtain an average deviation for quiet solar activity within a range of 75.1-83.1 km/s. Compared to this baseline level, periods within the ICME interval showed an increase of 18-32% above the expected background and the period of 2 days after the ICME displayed an increase of 9-24%. We obtain a total duration of enhanced deviations over about 3 and up to 6 days after the ICME start, which is much longer than the average duration of an ICME disturbance itself (∼1.3 days), concluding that interplanetary space needs ∼2-5 days to recover from the impact of ICMEs. The obtained results have strong implications for studying CME propagation behavior and also for space weather forecasting.

We determine the three‐dimensional geometry and deprojected mass of 29 well‐observed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs) using combined Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory ‐ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory white‐light data. From the geometry parameters, we calculate the volume of the CME for the magnetic ejecta (flux‐rope type geometry) and sheath structure (shell‐like geometry resembling the (I)CME frontal rim). Working under the assumption that the CME mass is roughly equally distributed within a specific volume, we expand the CME self‐similarly and calculate the CME density for distances close to the Sun (15–30 Rs) and at 1 AU. Specific trends are derived comparing calculated and in‐situ measured proton densities at 1 AU, though large uncertainties are revealed due to the unknown mass and geometry evolution: (1) a moderate correlation for the magnetic structure having a mass that stays rather constant (cc ≈ 0.56 − 0.59), and (2) a weak correlation for the sheath density (cc ≈ 0.26) by assuming the sheath region is an extra mass—as expected for a mass pile‐up process—that is in its amount comparable to the initial CME deprojected mass. High correlations are derived between in‐situ measured sheath density and the solar wind density (cc ≈ −0.73) and solar wind speed (cc ≈ 0.56) as measured 24 h ahead of the arrival of the disturbance. This gives additional confirmation that the sheath‐plasma indeed stems from piled‐up solar wind material. While the CME interplanetary propagation speed is not related to the sheath density, the size of the CME may play some role in how much material could be piled up.