Background: Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities.

No abstract

In southeastern Canada, most populations of Ixodes scapularis Say, the Lyme disease vector, occur in Carolinian forests. Climate change projections suggest a northward range expansion of I. scapularis this century, but it is unclear whether more northerly habitats are suitable for I. scapularis survival. In this study, we assessed the suitability of woodlands of the Lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Plain region for I. scapularis by comparing tick egg survival in four different woodlands. Woodlands where I. scapularis are established, and sand dune where I. scapularis do not survive, served as positive and negative control sites, respectively. At two woodland sites, egg survival was the same as at the positive control site, but at two of the sites survival was significantly less than either the positive control site, or one of the other test sites. Egg survival in all woodland sites was significantly higher than in the sand dune site. Ground level habitat classification discriminated among woodlands in which tick survival differed. The likelihood that I. scapularis populations could persist in the different habitats, as deduced using a population model of I. scapularis, was significantly associated with variations in Landsat 7 ETM+ data (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and Tasselled Cap indices). The NDVI index predicted habitat suitability at Long Point, Ontario, with high sensitivity but moderate specificity. Our study suggests that I. scapularis populations could establish in more northerly woodland types than those in which they currently exist. Suitable habitats may be detected by ground-level habitat classification, and remote-sensed data may assist this process.

Transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) relies on the presence of their vectors. Good knowledge of their habitat distribution could inform of their presence and then the potential transmission risk. In Canada, West Nile virus (WNV), a VBD transmitted by mosquitoes of the Culex genus to birds, humans, and other mammals, was first reported in 2002. Since then, human cases have been reported every year. To reduce the health burden of the disease and to guide the vector control efforts, this work aims to provide a map of habitat suitability of the main vectors of WNV, Culex pipiens-restuans, in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario at 30 m spatial resolution. Landsat 8-OTI/TIRS images were combined with existing geographical data to characterize vegetated and paved areas in urban and peri-urban areas and to create a land use land cover map related to environmental determinants of Culex pipiens-restuans. Landscape metrics were calculated to characterize the neighborhood environment. They were used with 1008 presence sites of the vectors to build species distribution models with Maxent, a model based on the maximum entropy principle, and to predict habitat suitability for Culex pipiens-restuans in the study area. The performance of the models was very good, with a mean area under the curve of 0.92 and a continuous Boyce index of 0.97. A habitat suitability map of the whole study area was created for Culex pipiens-restuans. The resulting map and environment analysis highlight the importance of the edge of vegetation and mixed or paved areas for the bio-ecology of Culex pipiens-restuans.