Tree-based machine learning models such as random forests, decision trees, and gradient boosted trees are popular non-linear predictive models, yet comparatively little attention has been paid to explaining their predictions. Here, we improve the interpretability of tree-based models through three main contributions: 1) The first polynomial time algorithm to compute optimal explanations based on game theory. 2) A new type of explanation that directly measures local feature interaction effects. 3) A new set of tools for understanding global model structure based on combining many local explanations of each prediction. We apply these tools to three medical machine learning problems and show how combining many high-quality local explanations allows us to represent global structure while retaining local faithfulness to the original model. These tools enable us to i) identify high magnitude but low frequency non-linear mortality risk factors in the US population, ii) highlight distinct population subgroups with shared risk characteristics, iii) identify non-linear interaction effects among risk factors for chronic kidney disease, and iv) monitor a machine learning model deployed in a hospital by identifying which features are degrading the model's performance over time. Given the popularity of tree-based machine learning models, these improvements to their interpretability have implications across a broad set of domains.

The aspergilli comprise a diverse group of filamentous fungi spanning over 200 million years of evolution. Here we report the genome sequence of the model organism Aspergillus nidulans, and a comparative study with Aspergillus fumigatus, a serious human pathogen, and Aspergillus oryzae, used in the production of sake, miso and soy sauce. Our analysis of genome structure provided a quantitative evaluation of forces driving long-term eukaryotic genome evolution. It also led to an experimentally validated model of mating-type locus evolution, suggesting the potential for sexual reproduction in A. fumigatus and A. oryzae. Our analysis of sequence conservation revealed over 5,000 non-coding regions actively conserved across all three species. Within these regions, we identified potential functional elements including a previously uncharacterized TPP riboswitch and motifs suggesting regulation in filamentous fungi by Puf family genes. We further obtained comparative and experimental evidence indicating widespread translational regulation by upstream open reading frames. These results enhance our understanding of these widely studied fungi as well as provide new insight into eukaryotic genome evolution and gene regulation.The aspergilli are a ubiquitous group of filamentous fungi spanning over 200 million years of evolution. Among the over 185 aspergilli are several that have an impact on human health and society, including 20 human pathogens as well as beneficial species used to produce foodstuffs and industrial enzymes 1 . Within this genus, A. nidulans has a central role as a model organism. In contrast to most aspergilli, A. nidulans possesses a well-characterized sexual cycle and thus a well-developed genetics system. Half a century of A. nidulans research has advanced the study of eukaryotic cellular physiology, contributing to our understanding of metabolic regulation, development, cell cycle control, chromatin structure, cytoskeletal function, DNA repair, pH control, morphogenesis, mitochondrial DNA structure and human genetic diseases.We present here the genome sequence for A. nidulans, and a comparative genomics study with two related aspergilli: A. fumigatus 2 and A. oryzae 3 . A. fumigatus is a life-threatening human pathogen, and ARTICLES

Although anaesthesiologists strive to avoid hypoxemia during surgery, reliably predicting future intraoperative hypoxemia is not currently possible. Here, we report the development and testing of a machine-learning-based system that, in real time during general anaesthesia, predicts the risk of hypoxemia and provides explanations of the risk factors. The system, which was trained on minute-by-minute data from the electronic medical records of over fifty thousand surgeries, improved the performance of anaesthesiologists when providing interpretable hypoxemia risks and contributing factors. The explanations for the predictions are broadly consistent with the literature and with prior knowledge from anaesthesiologists. Our results suggest that if anaesthesiologists currently anticipate 15% of hypoxemia events, with this system’s assistance they would anticipate 30% of them, a large portion of which may benefit from early intervention because they are associated with modifiable factors. The system can help improve the clinical understanding of hypoxemia risk during anaesthesia care by providing general insights into the exact changes in risk induced by certain patient or procedure characteristics.