Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet's birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25-7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and welldefined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phasecurve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10-100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 NH 3 , HCN, H 2 S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performedusing conservative estimates of mission performance and a

Ariel has been selected as ESA's M4 mission for launch in 2028 and is designed for the characterisation of a large and diverse population of exoplanetary atmospheres to provide insights into planetary formation and evolution within our Galaxy. Here we present a study of Ariel's capability to observe currently-known exoplanets and predicted TESS discoveries.We use the Ariel Radiometric model (ArielRad) to simulate the instrument performance and find that ∼2000 of these planets have atmospheric signals which could be characterised by Ariel. This list of potential planets contains a diverse range of planetary and stellar parameters. From these we select an example Mission Reference Sample (MRS), comprised of 1000 diverse planets to be completed within the primary mission life, which is consistent with previous studies.We also explore the mission capability to perform an in-depth survey into the atmospheres of smaller planets, which may be enriched or secondary. Earth-sized planets and Super-Earths with atmospheres heavier than H/He will be more challenging to observe spectroscopically. However, by studying the time required to observe ∼110 Earth-sized/Super-Earths, we find that Ariel could have substantial capability for providing in-depth observations of smaller planets.Trade-offs between the number and type of planets observed will form a key part of the selection process and this list of planets will continually evolve with new exoplanet discoveries replacing predicted detections. The Ariel target list will be constantly updated and the MRS re-selected to ensure maximum diversity in the population of planets studied during the primary mission life.

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ArielRad, the Ariel radiometric model, is a simulator developed to address the challenges in optimising the space mission science payload and to demonstrate its compliance with the performance requirements. Ariel, the Atmospheric Remote-Sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey, has been selected by ESA as the M4 mission in the Cosmic Vision programme and, during its 4 years primary operation, will provide the first unbiased spectroscopic survey of a large and diverse sample of transiting exoplanet atmospheres. To allow for an accurate study of the mission, ArielRad uses a physically motivated noise model to estimate contributions arising from stationary processes, and includes margins for correlated and time-dependent noise sources. We show that the measurement uncertainties are dominated by the photon statistic, and that an observing programme with about 1000 exoplanetary targets can be completed during the primary mission lifetime.

The Twinkle space telescope has been designed for the characterisation of exoplanets and Solar System objects. Operating in a low Earth, Sunsynchronous orbit, Twinkle is equipped with a 45 cm telescope and visible (0.4 -1µm) and infrared (1.3 -4.5µm) spectrometers which can be operated simultaneously. Twinkle is a general observatory which will provide on-demand observations of a wide variety of targets within wavelength ranges that are currently not accessible using other space telescopes or accessible only to oversubscribed observatories in the short-term future.Here we explore the ability of Twinkle's spectrometers to characterise the currently-known exoplanets. We study the spectral resolution achievable by combining multiple observations for various planetary and stellar types. We also simulate spectral retrievals for some well-known planets (HD 209458 b, GJ 3470 b and 55 Cnc e).From the exoplanets known today, we find that with a single transit or eclipse, Twinkle could probe 89 planets at low spectral resolution (R <20) as well as 12 planets at higher resolution (R >20) in channel 1 (1.3 -4.5µm). With 10 observations, the atmospheres of 144 planets could be characterised with R <20 and 81 at higher resolutions.Upcoming surveys will reveal thousands of new exoplanets, many of which will be located within Twinkle's field of regard. TESS in particular 1 arXiv:1811.08348v2 [astro-ph.EP]