Summary Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest—namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial—ENTHUSE M1—in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0·791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0·743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3·32, 95% CI 2·39–4·62, p<0·0001; reference model: 2·56, 1·85–3·53, p<0·0001). The new model was validated further on the ENTHUSE M1 cohort with similarly high performance (iAUC 0·768). Meta-analysis across all methods confirmed previously identified...

SummaryKnowledge of the full target space of bioactive substances, approved and investigational drugs as well as chemical probes, provides important insights into therapeutic potential and possible adverse effects. The existing compound-target bioactivity data resources are often incomparable due to non-standardized and heterogeneous assay types and variability in endpoint measurements. To extract higher value from the existing and future compound target-profiling data, we implemented an open-data web platform, named Drug Target Commons (DTC), which features tools for crowd-sourced compound-target bioactivity data annotation, standardization, curation, and intra-resource integration. We demonstrate the unique value of DTC with several examples related to both drug discovery and drug repurposing applications and invite researchers to join this community effort to increase the reuse and extension of compound bioactivity data.

T-cell prolymphocytic leukemia (T-PLL) is a rare and aggressive neoplasm of mature T-cells with an urgent need for rationally designed therapies to address its notoriously chemo-refractory behavior. The median survival of T-PLL patients is <2 years and clinical trials are difficult to execute. Here we systematically explored the diversity of drug responses in T-PLL patient samples using an ex vivo drug sensitivity and resistance testing platform and correlated the findings with somatic mutations and gene expression profiles. Intriguingly, all T-PLL samples were sensitive to the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor SNS-032, which overcame stromal-cell-mediated protection and elicited robust p53-activation and apoptosis. Across all patients, the most effective classes of compounds were histone deacetylase, phosphoinositide-3 kinase/AKT/mammalian target of rapamycin, heat-shock protein 90 and BH3-family protein inhibitors as well as p53 activators, indicating previously unexplored, novel targeted approaches for treating T-PLL. Although Janus-activated kinase-signal transducer and activator of transcription factor (JAK-STAT) pathway mutations were common in T-PLL (71% of patients), JAK-STAT inhibitor responses were not directly linked to those or other T-PLL-specific lesions. Overall, we found that genetic markers do not readily translate into novel effective therapeutic vulnerabilities. In conclusion, novel classes of compounds with high efficacy in T-PLL were discovered with the comprehensive ex vivo drug screening platform warranting further studies of synergisms and clinical testing.