E.M. designed the study and wrote the initial draft of the manuscript. All authors collected samples and data, helped to interpret the results and reviewed drafts of the manuscript.Competing interests R.J.B. has equity ownership interest in C2N Diagnostics and receives royalty income based on technology (stable isotope labeling kinetics and blood plasma assay) licensed by Washington University to C2N Diagnostics. R.J.B. receives income from C2N Diagnostics for serving on the scientific advisory board. Washington University, with R.J.B., E.M. and N.R.B. as co-inventors, has submitted the US nonprovisional patent application 'Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau rate of phosphorylation measurement to define stages of Alzheimer's disease and monitor brain kinases/phosphatases activity'. R.J.B. has received honoraria from Janssen and Pfizer as a speaker, and from Merck and Pfizer as an advisory board member. E.M. has received royalty payments for an educational program supported by Eli Lilly and as a member of a scientific advisory board for Eli Lilly.

Background Alzheimer's disease and its complications are the leading cause of death in adults with Down syndrome. Studies have assessed Alzheimer's disease in individuals with Down syndrome, but the natural history of biomarker changes in Down syndrome has not been established. We characterised the order and timing of changes in biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease in a population of adults with Down syndrome. Methods We did a dual-centre cross-sectional study of adults with Down syndrome recruited through a populationbased health plan in Barcelona (Spain) and through services for people with intellectual disabilities in Cambridge (UK). Cognitive impairment in participants with Down syndrome was classified with the Cambridge Cognitive Examination for Older Adults with Down Syndrome (CAMCOG-DS). Only participants with mild or moderate disability were included who had at least one of the following Alzheimer's disease measures: apolipoprotein E allele carrier status; plasma concentrations of amyloid β peptides 1-42 and 1-40 and their ratio (Aβ 1-42/1-40 ), total tau protein, and neurofilament light chain (NFL); tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (p-tau), and NFL in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF); and one or more of PET with ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose, PET with amyloid tracers, and MRI. Cognitively healthy euploid controls aged up to 75 years who had no biomarker abnormalities were recruited from the Sant Pau Initiative on Neurodegeneration. We used a first-order locally estimated scatterplot smoothing curve to determine the order and age at onset of the biomarker changes, and the lowest ages at the divergence with 95% CIs are also reported where appropriate.