OJ287 is a quasi-periodic quasar with roughly 12 year optical cycles. It displays prominent outbursts that are predictable in a binary black hole model. The model predicted a major optical outburst in 2015 December. We found that the outburst did occur within the expected time range, peaking on 2015 December 5 at magnitude 12.9 in the optical R-band. Based on Swift/XRT satellite measurements and optical polarization data, we find that it included a major thermal component. Its timing provides an accurate estimate for the spin of the primary black hole, 0.313 0.01 c =  . The present outburst also confirms the established general relativistic properties of the system such as the loss of orbital energy to gravitational radiation at the 2% accuracy level, and it opens up the possibility of testing the black hole no-hair theorem with 10% accuracy during the present decade.

Results from regular monitoring of relativistic compact binaries like PSR 1913+16 are consistent with the dominant (quadrupole) order emission of gravitational waves (GWs). We show that observations associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine of blazar OJ287 demand the inclusion of gravitational radiation reaction effects beyond the quadrupolar order. It turns out that even the effects of certain hereditary contributions to GW emission are required to predict impact flare timings of OJ287. We develop an approach that incorporates this effect into the BBH model for OJ287. This allows us to demonstrate an excellent agreement between the observed impact flare timings and those predicted from ten orbital cycles of the BBH central engine model. The deduced rate of orbital period decay is nine orders of magnitude higher than the observed rate in PSR 1913+16, demonstrating again the relativistic nature of OJ287ʼs central engine. Finally, we argue that precise timing of the predicted 2019 impact flare should allow a test of the celebrated black hole "no-hair theorem" at the 10% level.

Abstract. We present multi-wavelength long-term monitoring observations of V635 Cas, the optical counterpart to the transient X-ray pulsar 4U 0115+63. The evolution of emission lines and photometric magnitudes indicates that the Be star undergoes relatively fast (∼3 − 5 yr) quasi-cyclic activity, losing and reforming its circumstellar disc. We show that the general optical, infrared and X-ray behaviour can be explained by the dynamical evolution of the viscous circumstellar disc around the Be star. After each disc-loss episode, the disc starts reforming and grows until it reaches the radius at which the resonant interaction of the neutron star truncates it. At some point, the disc becomes unstable to (presumably radiative) warping and then tilts and starts precessing. The tilting is very large and disc precession leads to a succession of single-peaked and shell profiles in the emission lines. Type II X-ray outbursts take place after the disc has been strongly disturbed and we speculate that the distortion of the disc leads to interaction with the orbiting neutron star. We discuss the implications of these correlated optical/X-ray variations for the different models proposed to explain the occurrence of X-ray outbursts in Be/X-ray binaries. We show that the hypothesis of mass ejection events as the cause of the spectacular variability and the X-ray outbursts is unlikely to be meaningful for any Be/X-ray binary.

Abstract. Extensive optical and infrared photometry as well as low and high resolution spectroscopy are used as inputs in deriving robust estimates of the reddening, distance and nature of the progenitor of V838 Mon, the 2002 outbursting event that produced a most spectacular light-echo. The reddening affecting V838 Mon is found to obey the R V = 3.1 law and amounts to (i) E B−V = 0.86 from the interstellar NaI and KI lines; (ii) E B−V = 0.88 from the energy distribution of the B3 V component; and (iii) E B−V = 0.87 from the progression of extinction along the line of sight. The adopted E B−V = 0.87 ± 0.01 is also the amount required by fitting the progenitor with theoretical isochrones of appropriate metallicity. The distance is estimated from (a) the galactic kinematics of the three components of the interstellar lines; (b) the amount of extinction vs. the HI column density and vs. the dust emission through the whole Galaxy in that direction; from (c) spectrophotometric parallax to the B3 V companion; from (d) comparison of the observed color−magnitude diagram of field stars with 3D stellar population models of the Galaxy; from (e) comparison of theoretical isochrones with the components of the binary system in quiescence and found to be around 10 kpc. Pre-outburst optical and IR energy distributions show that the component erupting in 2002 was brighter and hotter than the B3 V companion. The best fit is obtained for a 50 000 K source, 0.5 mag brighter than the B3 V companion. The latter passed unaffected through the outburst, which implies an orbital separation wide enough to avoid mass exchange during the evolution of the binary system, and to allow a safe comparison with theoretical isochrones for single stars. Such a comparison suggests that the progenitor of the outbursting component had an initial mass ∼65 M , that it was approaching the carbon ignition stage in its core at the time it erupted in 2002 and that the age of the V838 Mon binary system is close to 4 million yr. The 2002 event is probably just a shell thermonuclear event in the outer envelope of the star.