Predictive models of immune protection from COVID-19 are urgently needed to identify correlates of protection to assist in the future deployment of vaccines. To address this, we analyzed the relationship between in vitro neutralization levels and the observed protection from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using data from seven current vaccines and from convalescent cohorts. We estimated the neutralization level for 50% protection against detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 20.2% of the mean convalescent level (95% confidence interval (CI) = 14.4-28.4%). The estimated neutralization level required for 50% protection from severe infection was significantly lower (3% of the mean convalescent level; 95% CI = 0.7-13%, P = 0.0004). Modeling of the decay of the neutralization titer over the first 250 d after immunization predicts that a significant loss in protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection will occur, although protection from severe disease should be largely retained. Neutralization titers against some SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are reduced compared with the vaccine strain, and our model predicts the relationship between neutralization and efficacy against viral variants. Here, we show that neutralization level is highly predictive of immune protection, and provide an evidence-based model of SARS-CoV-2 immune protection that will assist in developing vaccine strategies to control the future trajectory of the pandemic.

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Summary Latent replication-competent HIV-1 persists in individuals on long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART). We developed the Full-Length Individual Proviral Sequencing (FLIPS) assay to determine the distribution of latent replication-competent HIV-1 within memory CD4+ T cell subsets in six individuals on long-term ART. FLIPS is an efficient, high-throughput assay that amplifies and sequences near full-length (~9 kb) HIV-1 proviral genomes and determines potential replication-competency through genetic characterization. FLIPS provides a genome-scale perspective which addresses the limitations of other methods that also genetically characterize the latent reservoir. Using FLIPS, we identified 5% proviruses as intact and potentially replication-competent. Intact proviruses were unequally distributed between T cell subsets, with effector memory cells containing the largest proportion of genetically intact HIV-1 proviruses. We identified multiple identical intact proviruses suggesting a role for cellular proliferation in the maintenance of the latent HIV-1 reservoir.