Background Biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular events in community-based populations have not consistently added information to standard risk factors. A limitation of many previously studied biomarkers is their lack of cardiovascular specificity. Methods and Results To determine the prognostic value of 3 novel biomarkers induced by cardiovascular stress, we measured soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I in 3,428 participants (mean age 59, 53% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. We performed multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to assess the individual and combined ability of the biomarkers to predict adverse outcomes. We also constructed a “multimarker” score composed of the 3 biomarkers, in addition to B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 488 deaths, 336 major cardiovascular events, 162 heart failure events, and 142 coronary events. In multivariable-adjusted models, the 3 new biomarkers were associated with each endpoint (p<0.001) except for coronary events. Individuals with multimarker scores in the highest quartile had a 3-fold risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.2, 95% CI, 2.2–4.7; p<0.001), 6-fold risk of heart failure (6.2, 95% CI, 2.6–14.8; p<0.001), and 2-fold risk of cardiovascular events (1.9, 95% CI, 1.3–2.7; p=0.001). Addition of the multimarker score to clinical variables led to significant increases in the c-statistic (p=0.007 or lower) and net reclassification improvement (p=0.001 or lower). Conclusions Multiple biomarkers of cardiovascular stress are detectable in ambulatory individuals, and add prognostic value to standard risk factors for predicting death, overall cardiovascular events, and heart failure.

Background-Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase, induces endothelial dysfunction. Although elevated ADMA has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease events and death in referral samples, the prognostic significance of ADMA in the community has not been adequately evaluated. Methods and Results-We related plasma ADMA, L-arginine (Arg), and the ratio of Arg to ADMA to the incidence of cardiovascular disease (fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina pectoris, stroke or transient ischemic attack, intermittent claudication, or heart failure) and death in 3320 Framingham Offspring Study participants (1769 women; mean age, 59 years). Over a follow-up period of 10.9 years, 281 individuals of 2956 free of cardiovascular disease at baseline developed incident cardiovascular disease, and 285 participants died. In multivariable models adjusting for established risk factors and other biomarkers (B-type natriuretic peptide, renin, homocysteine, urine albumin excretion, and C-reactive protein), ADMA and the ratio of Arg to ADMA were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted-hazard ratio [HR] per 1-SD increment, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.37; and HR per 1-SD increment, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.93, respectively), whereas Arg was not (HR per 1-SD increment, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.02). We noted effect modification by diabetes status; ADMA was associated with death in individuals without diabetes (adjusted HR per 1-SD increment, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.50) but not in individuals with diabetes (adjusted HR per 1-SD increment, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.16). ADMA, Arg, and the ratio of Arg to ADMA were not associated with cardiovascular disease incidence (PϾ0.10). Conclusions-In our large community-based sample, ADMA was significantly associated with all-cause mortality, particularly in nondiabetic individuals. (Circulation. 2009;119:1592-1600.)