BackgroundPathogens transmitted by ticks cause human disease on a greater scale than any other vector-borne infections in Europe, and have increased dramatically over the past 2–3 decades. Reliable records of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) since 1970 show an especially sharp upsurge in cases in Eastern Europe coincident with the end of Soviet rule, including the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, where national incidence increased from 1992 to 1993 by 64, 175 and 1,065%, respectively. At the county level within each country, however, the timing and degree of increase showed marked heterogeneity. Climate has also changed over this period, prompting an almost universal assumption of causality. For the first time, we analyse climate and TBE epidemiology at sufficiently fine spatial and temporal resolution to question this assumption.Methodology/Principal FindingDetailed analysis of instrumental records of climate has revealed a significant step increase in spring-time daily maximum temperatures in 1989. The seasonal timing and precise level of this warming were indeed such as could promote the transmission of TBE virus between larval and nymphal ticks co-feeding on rodents. These changes in climate, however, are virtually uniform across the Baltic region and cannot therefore explain the marked spatio-temporal heterogeneity in TBE epidemiology.Conclusions/SignificanceInstead, it is proposed that climate is just one of many different types of factors, many arising from the socio-economic transition associated with the end of Soviet rule, that have acted synergistically to increase both the abundance of infected ticks and the exposure of humans to these ticks. Understanding the precise differential contribution of each factor as a cause of the observed epidemiological heterogeneity will help direct control strategies.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), the most serious widespread vector-borne disease of humans in Europe, increased from 2- to 30-fold in many Central and Eastern European countries from 1992 to 1993, coinciding with independence from Soviet rule. Unemployment and low income have been shown in Latvia to be statistically associated with high-risk behaviour involving harvest of wild foods from tick-infested forests, and also with not being vaccinated against TBE. Archival data for 1970--2005 record major changes in the agricultural and industrial sectors, and consequent changes in the abiotic and biotic environment and socio-economic conditions, which could have increased the abundance of infected ticks and the contact of humans with those ticks. For example, abandoned agricultural fields became suitable for rodent transmission hosts; use of pesticides and emissions of atmospheric industrial pollutants plummeted; wildlife hosts for ticks increased; tick populations appear to have responded; unemployment and inequality increased in all countries. These factors, by acting synergistically but differentially between and within each country, can explain the marked spatio-temporal heterogeneities in TBE epidemiology better than can climate change alone, which is too uniform across wide areas. Different degrees of socio-economic upheaval caused by political transition in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic can apparently explain the marked variation in TBE upsurge. Causal linkage between national socio-economic conditions and epidemiology is strongly indicated by striking correlations across eight countries between the degree of upsurge of TBE and both poverty and household expenditure on food (R2 = 0.533 and 0.716, respectively).

Dobrava hantavirus (DOB) was isolated from the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) trapped on Saaremaa Island, Estonia, and its genetic and antigenic characteristics were subsequently analysed. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Estonian DOB strain, together with several wild strains carried by Apodemus agrarius, forms a well-supported lineage within the DOB clade. The topography of the trees calculated for the S, M and L nucleotide sequences of the Estonian DOB suggests a similar evolutionary history for all three genes of this virus and, therefore, the absence of heterologous reassortment in its evolution. A cross-neutralization comparison of the Estonian virus with the prototype DOB, isolated from a yellow-necked mouse (A. flavicollis) in Slovenia, revealed 2-to 4-fold differences in the end-point titres of rabbit and human antisera. When studied with a panel of 25 monoclonal antibodies (MAbs), the Estonian and Slovenian DOB isolates showed similar antigenic patterns that could be distinguished by two MAbs. Genetic comparison showed sequence differences in all three genome segments of the two DOB isolates, including an additional N-glycosylation site in the deduced sequence of the G2 protein from the Estonian virus. Whether any of these mutations relates to the different rodent hosts rather than to the distant geographical origin of the two isolates remains to be resolved. Taken together, our observations suggest that A. agrarius, which is known to harbour Hantaan virus in Asia, carries another hantavirus, DOB, in north-east Europe.

The data suggest that the TBE spike was not due to weather-induced variation in tick population dynamics. An alternative explanation, supported by qualitative reports and some data, involves human behavioural responses to weather favourable for outdoor recreational activities, including wild mushroom and berry harvest, differentially influenced by national cultural practices and economic constraints.

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