The BCL-2 inhibitor Venetoclax (VEN) in combination with Azacitidine (5-AZA) is currently transforming Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) therapy. However, there is a lack of clinically relevant biomarkers that predict response to 5-AZA/VEN. Here, we integrated transcriptomic, proteomic, functional and clinical data to identify predictors of 5-AZA/VEN response. Although cultured monocytic AML cells displayed upfront resistance, monocytic differentiation was not clinically predictive in our patient cohort. We identified leukemic stem cells (LSC) as primary targets of 5-AZA/VEN whose elimination determined therapy outcome. LSCs of 5-AZA/VEN refractory patients displayed perturbed apoptotic dependencies. We developed and validated a flow cytometry-based “Mediators-of-Apoptosis-Combinatorial-Score” (MAC-Score) linking the ratio of protein expression of BCL-2, BCL-xL, and MCL-1 in LSCs. MAC-Scoring predicts initial response with a positive predictive-value of >97% associated to increased event-free survival. In summary, combinatorial levels of BCL-2-family members in AML-LSCs are a key denominator of response and MAC-Scoring reliably predicts patient response to 5-AZA/VEN.

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