BackgroundPredicting the risk of flares in patients with gout is a challenge and the link between urate burden and the risk of gout flare is unclear. The objective of this study was to determine if the extent of monosodium urate (MSU) burden measured with dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) and ultrasonography (US) is predictive of the risk of gout flares.MethodsThis prospective observational study recruited patients with gout to undergo MSU burden assessment with DECT (volume of deposits) and US (double contour sign) scans of the knees and feet. Patients attended follow-up visits at 3, 6 and 12 months. Patients having presented with at least one flare at 6 months were compared to those who did not flare. Odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence interval) for the risk of flare were calculated.ResultsOverall, 64/78 patients included attended at least one follow-up visit. In bivariate analysis, the number of joints with the double contour sign was not associated with the risk of flare (p = 0.67). Multivariate analysis retained a unique variable: DECT MSU volume of the feet. For each 1 cm3 increase in DECT MSU volume in foot deposits, the risk of flare increased 2.03-fold during the first 6 months after initial assessment (OR 2.03 (1.15–4.38)). The threshold volume best discriminating patients with and without flare was 0.81 cm3 (specificity 61%, sensitivity 77%).ConclusionsThis is the first study showing that the extent of MSU burden measured with DECT but not US is predictive of the risk of flares.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13075-018-1714-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundUltrasonography (US) and dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) can assess urate burden in gout. The objective of this study was to compare the quantification of urate deposition provided by US to the one provided by DECT.MethodsPatients with a diagnosis of gout were prospectively recruited to undergo quantification of urate deposition using US and DECT. US examination for tophi and the double contour (DC) sign was performed on the knees and feet and corresponding DECT scans provided volumes of tophi and of overall urate deposition. The primary endpoint was the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) of the volume of the index tophus measured by US and DECT and its 95% confidence interval (CI 95%).ResultsOf the 64 patients included, 34 presented with at least one tophus on US. DECT inter-reader agreement for urate deposition was perfect with an ICC of 1 (1–1) and good for the measurement of the index tophus with an ICC of 0.69 (0.47–0.83). The ICC for the measurement of the index tophus between the two techniques was poor with a value of 0.45 (0.1–0.71). The average ratio between the index tophi volume as assessed by DECT and US was 0.65. The number of DC-positive joints did not correlate with DECT volume of overall deposits (Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.23).ConclusionsDECT measurements of tophi give smaller volumes to the same tophi measured with US, and US signs of urate deposition in joints do not correlate with overall DECT volumes of extra-articular deposition.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13075-017-1381-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.