This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.

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The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of the gall midge Aschistonyx eppoi Inouye (1964) (Diptera, Cecidomyiidae), for the EU. A. eppoi is a well-defined and distinguishable species, native to Japan and Korea, and recognised as a pest of Juniperus chinensis, although our knowledge is solely based on one unique publication. A. eppoi is absent from the EU, and is listed in Annex IIAI of Directive 2000/29/EC. Its host plants, Juniperus spp. are also listed in Annex III of Directive 2000/29/EC. Plants for planting and branches are considered as pathways for this pest. A. eppoi has been intercepted twice (1974; 1975) in the EU and has been eradicated. The pest is likely to affect bonsai plants of J. chinensis if it were to establish in the EU territory. However, as it is unknown whether A. eppoi would attack the Juniperus spp. that occur in the EU, its potential impact on the wild vegetation is also unknown. As the pest originates from areas with warm climates, impact outdoors would affect the southern parts of the EU. Cultural control (destruction of infested material) and chemical control are the major control methods. All criteria assessed by EFSA for consideration as a potential quarantine pest are met, although there are high uncertainties regarding impact. The species is presently absent from the EU, and thus the criteria for consideration as a potential regulated non-quarantine pest are not met.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of the citrus fruit midge, Resseliella citrifrugis Jiang (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), for the territory of the EU. This species is not included in EU Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072. This oligophagous species, which feeds on Citrus spp. fruits, is known to occur in China (provinces of Fujian, Gansu, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Sichuan). First‐generation adults emerge in April and oviposit on the peduncle and calyx of citrus fruits. Larvae feed on the albedo (the white layer between skin and pulp) of the fruit, which they tunnel. Infested fruit most often drop prematurely. Larvae pupate either within the fallen fruit or in the soil. This species has three main peaks of activity (May, June–July, August–September) and four generations per year in its native range. Mature larvae from the last generation are the overwintering stage. Potential entry pathways for R. citrifrugis , such as Citrus spp. plants for planting with foliage and soil/growing media, and soil/growing media can be considered as closed. The citrus fruit pathway remains open from countries where R. citrifrugis is known to occur. Indeed, this species was intercepted in fresh pomelos 11 times from December 2020 to January 2021 in the EU. Should R. citrifrugis enter the EU, the ample availability of hosts ( Citrus spp.) and the climatic conditions in citrus‐growing areas of southern EU Member States would most probably allow this species to successfully establish and spread. Economic impact in citrus production is anticipated if establishment occurs. R. citrifrugis satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. There is uncertainty about the nomenclature of R. citrifrugis and its exact host range. However, because the name Resseliella citrifrugis is used in multiple sources reporting it as a pest of citrus in China, where symptoms, biology and impact are described, these uncertainties do not affect the conclusions of this categorisation.

The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of the Siberian moth, Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetverikov (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae). D. sibiricus is a well‐defined and distinguishable species, native to Asian Russia and northern regions of Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China and North Korea, and recognised as a severe pest of Pinaceae conifers, mainly larch (Larix spp.), fir (Abies spp.), spruce (Picea spp.), five‐needle pines (Pinus spp.). It has also a potential to develop on non‐native Pinaceae: Cedrus, Pseudotsuga, Tsuga. It defoliates healthy trees and kills thousands of hectares of forests. It is absent from the EU and is listed as a quarantine pest in Annex IAI of Directive 2000/29/EC. Plants for planting, branches of conifers and non‐squared wood from its distribution range are considered as pathways for the pest, which can also disperse by flight over tens of kilometres. The females produce sex pheromones. Adults do not feed and can survive for about 2 weeks. One female lays up to 400 eggs, attaching them to needles. One generation usually develops in 2–3 years, with larvae passing winter diapause and some undergoing facultative summer diapause. Exceptionally, 1‐year generations may occur if the number of degree‐days above 10°C is higher than 2,200. Larvae feed on needles through 5–6 instars and pupate in a cocoon on tree branches. Mature larvae have urticating setae on thoracic segments that protect them from enemies and may cause allergic reactions in humans and animals. The contradictory studies regarding the climatic requirements of D. sibiricus make the issue of its establishment in most of the EU territory uncertain, although its host trees are widely present. All criteria for considering D. sibiricus as a potential quarantine pest are met. The species is presently absent from the EU, and thus, the criteria for consideration as a potential regulated non‐quarantine pest are not met.