Emerging infectious diseases are a key threat to conservation and public health, yet predicting and preventing their emergence is notoriously difficult. We devised a predictive model for the introduction of a zoonotic vector-borne pathogen by considering each of the pathways by which it may be introduced to a new area and comparing the relative risk of each pathway. This framework is an adaptation of pest introduction models and estimates the number of infectious individuals arriving in a location and the duration of their infectivity. We used it to determine the most likely route for the introduction of West Nile virus to Galápagos and measures that can be taken to reduce the risk of introduction. The introduction of this highly pathogenic virus to this unique World Heritage Site could have devastating consequences, similar to those seen following introductions of pathogens into other endemic island faunas. Our model identified the transport of mosquitoes on airplanes as the highest risk for West Nile virus introduction. Pathogen dissemination through avian migration and the transportation of day-old chickens appeared to be less important pathways. Infected humans and mosquitoes transported in sea containers, in tires, or by wind all represented much lower risk. Our risk-assessment framework has broad applicability to other pathogens and other regions and depends only on the availability of data on the transport of goods and animals and the epidemiology of the pathogen.

The presence of avian pox in endemic birds in the Galápagos Islands has led to concern that the health of these birds may be threatened by avipoxvirus introduction by domestic birds. We describe here a simple polymerase chain reaction-based method for identification and discrimination of avipoxvirus strains similar to the fowlpox or canarypox viruses. This method, in conjunction with DNA sequencing of two polymerase chain reaction-amplified loci totaling about 800 bp, was used to identify two avipoxvirus strains, Gal1 and Gal2, in pox lesions from yellow warblers (Dendroica petechia), finches (Geospiza spp.), and Galápagos mockingbirds (Nesomimus parvulus) from the inhabited islands of Santa Cruz and Isabela. Both strains were found in all three passerine taxa, and sequences from both strains were less than 5% different from each other and from canarypox virus. In contrast, chickens in Galápagos were infected with a virus that appears to be identical in sequence to the characterized fowlpox virus and about 30% different from the canarypox/Galápagos group viruses in the regions sequenced. These results indicate the presence of canarypox-like viruses in endemic passerine birds that are distinct from the fowlpox virus infecting chickens on Galápagos. Alignment of the sequence of a 5.9-kb region of the genome revealed that sequence identities among Gal1, Gal2, and canarypox viruses were clustered in discrete regions. This indicates that recombination between poxvirus strains in combination with mutation led to the canarypox-like viruses that are now prevalent in the Galápagos.