Background
Cancer is increasingly common among HIV patients given improved survival.
Objective
To examine calendar trends in cumulative cancer incidence and hazard rate by HIV status.
Design
Cohort study
Setting
North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design during 1996–2009
Patients
86,620 HIV-infected and 196,987 uninfected adults
Measurements
We estimated cancer-type-specific cumulative incidence by age 75 years by HIV status and calendar era, and examined calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rates.
Results
Cumulative incidences (%) of cancer by age 75 (HIV+/HIV−) were: Kaposi sarcoma (KS), 4.4/0.01; non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), 4.5/0.7; lung, 3.4/2.8; anal, 1.5/0.1; colorectal, 1.0/1.5; liver, 1.1/0.4; Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), 0.9/0.1; melanoma, 0.5/0.6; and oral cavity/pharyngeal, 0.8/0.8. Among HIV-infected subjects, we observed decreasing calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rate for KS and NHL. For anal, colorectal and liver cancers, increasing cumulative incidence, but not hazard rate trends, were due to the decreasing mortality rate trend (−9% per year), allowing greater opportunity to be diagnosed with these cancer types. Despite decreasing hazard rate trends for lung, HL, and melanoma, we did not observe cumulative incidence trends due to the compensating effect of the declining mortality rate on cumulative incidence.
Limitations
Secular trends in screening, smoking, and viral co-infections were not evaluated.
Conclusions
Our analytic approach helped disentangle the effects of improved survival and changing cancer-specific hazard rates on cumulative incidence trends among HIV patients. Cumulative cancer incidence by age 75, approximating lifetime risk in HIV patients, may have clinical utility in this population. The high cumulative incidences by age 75 for KS, NHL, and lung cancer supports early and sustained ART and smoking cessation.
Primary Funding Source
National Institutes of Health