WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundKnowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden.Methods and FindingsThis method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases.ConclusionsInfluenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries.

IntroductionKenya adopted the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy in 1998 to strengthen disease surveillance and epidemic response. However, the goal of weekly surveillance reporting among health facilities has not been achieved. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the prevalence of adequate reporting and factors associated with IDSR reporting among health facilities in one Kenyan County.MethodsHealth facilities (public and private) were enrolled using stratified random sampling from 348 facilities prioritized for routine surveillance reporting. Adequately-reporting facilities were defined as those which submitted >10 weekly reports during a twelve-week period and a poor reporting facilities were those which submitted <10 weekly reports. Multivariate logistic regression with backward selection was used to identify risk factors associated with adequate reporting.ResultsFrom September 2 through November 30, 2013, we enrolled 175 health facilities; 130(74%) were private and 45(26%) were public. Of the 175 health facilities, 77 (44%) facilities classified as adequate reporting and 98 (56%) were reporting poorly. Multivariate analysis identified three factors to be independently associated with weekly adequate reporting: having weekly reporting forms at visit (AOR19, 95% CI: 6-65], having posters showing IDSR functions (AOR8, 95% CI: 2-12) and having a designated surveillance focal person (AOR7, 95% CI: 2-20).ConclusionThe majority of health facilities in Nairobi County were reporting poorly to IDSR and we recommend that the Ministry of Health provide all health facilities in Nairobi County with weekly reporting tools and offer specific trainings on IDSR which will help designate a focal surveillance person.