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The fine particles produced during the desertification process provide a rich material source for sand and dust activities. Accurately locating the desertified areas is a prerequisite for human intervention in sand and dust activities. In arid and semi-arid regions, due to very sparse vegetation coverage, the microwave surface scattering model is very suitable for describing the variation of topsoil property during the process of desertification. However, the microwave backscattering coefficient (MBC) trend of the soil during the desertification process is still unclear now. Moreover, the MBC of a resolution unit usually involves the contribution of soil and vegetation. These problems seriously limit the application of microwave remote sensing technology in desertification identification. In this paper, we studied the soil MBC change trend during the desertification process and proposed a microwave backscattering contribution decomposition (MBCD) model to estimate the soil MBC of a resolution unit. Furthermore, a simple microwave backscattering threshold (SMSBT) model was established to describe the severity of desertification. The MBCD and SMSBT models were verified qualitatively through landscape photos of sampling points from a field survey in November 2018. The results showed that the MBC would gradually decline with the deepening degree of desertification. The MBCD model and the corresponding least squares method can be used to estimate the soil MBC accurately, and the SMSBT model can accurately distinguish different degrees of desertification. The results of desertification classification showed that more than 68% of the dry bottom of the Aral Sea is suffering from different degrees of desertification.