Abstract. The environment, the on-going global climate change and the ecology of animal species determine the localisation of habitats and the geographical distribution of the various species in nature. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of such changes on snail species not only of interest to naturalists but also of importance to human and animal health. The spatial distribution of freshwater snail intermediate hosts involved in the transmission of schistosomiasis, fascioliasis and paramphistomiasis (i.e. Bulinus globosus, Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis) were modelled by the use of a maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent). Two snail observation datasets from Zimbabwe, from 1988 and 2012, were compared in terms of geospatial distribution and potential distributional change over this 24-year period investigated. Climate data, from the two years were identified and used in a species distribution modelling framework to produce maps of predicted suitable snail habitats. Having both climate-and snail observation data spaced 24 years in time represent a unique opportunity to evaluate biological response of snails to changes in climate variables. The study shows that snail habitat suitability is highly variable in Zimbabwe with foci mainly in the central Highveld but also in areas to the South and West. It is further demonstrated that the spatial distribution of suitable habitats changes with variation in the climatic conditions, and that this parallels that of the predicted climate change.

Background Schsistosomiasis is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. It is transmitted by intermediate host snails such as Bulinus and Biomphalaria. An understanding of the abundance and distribution of snail vectors is important in designing control strategies. This study describes the spatial and seasonal variation of B. globosus and Bio. pfeifferi and their schistosome infection rates between May 2014 and May 2015 in Ingwavuma, uMkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods Snail sampling was done on 16 sites once every month by two people for 30 min at each site using the scooping and handpicking methods. Snails collected from each site were screened for schistosome mammalian cercariae by the shedding method. The negative binomial generalised linear mixed model (glmm) was used to determine the relationship between abundances of the intermediate host snails and climatic factors [rainfall, land surface temperatures (LST), seasons, habitats, sampling sites and water physico-chemical parameters including pH and dissolved oxygen (DO)]. Results In total, 1846 schistosomiasis intermediate host snails were collected during the study period. Biompharia pfeifferi was more abundant (53.36%, n = 985) compared to B. globosus (46.64%, n = 861). Bulinus globosus was recorded at 12 sites (75%) and Bio. pfeifferi was present at 7 sites (43.8%). Biompharia pfeifferi cohabited with B. globosus at all the sites it was present. High numbers of Bio. pfeifferi (n = 872, 88.5%) and B. globosus (n = 705, 81.9%) were found between winter and mid-spring. Monthly rainfall showed a statistically significant negative relationship with the abundance of B. globosus (p < 0.05). Dissolved oxygen (DO) had a statistically significant positive relationship with the abundance of Bio. pfeifferi (p < 0.05) while (LST) had a statistically significant negative relationship (p < 0.05). More B. globosus (8.9%, n = 861) were shedding schistosome mammalian cercariae compared to Bio. pfeifferi (0.1%, n = 985) confirming the already documented high prevalence of S. haematobium in Ingwavuma compared to S. mansoni. Conclusion Results of this study provide updated information on the distribution of schistosomiasis intermediate host snails in the study area and contributes towards the understanding of the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis at the micro-geographical scale in this area. Graphic Abstract

BackgroundFreshwater snails are intermediate hosts for a number of trematodes of which some are of medical and veterinary importance. The trematodes rely on specific species of snails to complete their life cycle; hence the ecology of the snails is a key element in transmission of the parasites. More than 200 million people are infected with schistosomes of which 95% live in sub-Saharan Africa and many more are living in areas where transmission is on-going. Human infection with the Fasciola parasite, usually considered more of veterinary concern, has recently been recognised as a human health problem. Many countries have implemented health programmes to reduce morbidity and prevalence of schistosomiasis, and control programmes to mitigate food-borne fascioliasis. As these programmes are resource demanding, baseline information on disease prevalence and distribution becomes of great importance. Such information can be made available and put into practice through maps depicting spatial distribution of the intermediate snail hosts.MethodsA biology driven model for the freshwater snails Bulinus globosus, Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis was used to make predictions of snail habitat suitability by including potential underlying environmental and climatic drivers. The snail observation data originated from a nationwide survey in Zimbabwe and the prediction model was parameterised with a high resolution Regional Climate Model. Georeferenced prevalence data on urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis and fascioliasis was used to calibrate the snail habitat suitability predictions to produce binary maps of snail presence and absence.ResultsPredicted snail habitat suitability across Zimbabwe, as well as the spatial distribution of snails, is reported for three time slices representative for present (1980-1999) and future climate (2046-2065 and 2080-2099).ConclusionsIt is shown from the current study that snail habitat suitability is highly variable in Zimbabwe, with distinct high- and low- suitability areas and that temperature may be the main driving factor. It is concluded that future climate change in Zimbabwe may cause a reduced spatial distribution of suitable habitat of host snails with a probable exception of Bi. pfeifferi, the intermediate host for intestinal schistosomiasis that may increase around 2055 before declining towards 2100.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0536-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.